The logistic regression model was used to describe the temperature effect (25 to 50C), pH (3.5 to 5.5), soluble solids concentration (11 to 19) and nisin concentration (0 to 70 IU/mL) on the growth probability of Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris CRA 7152 in apple juice. The model concordance was 97.3%, indicating a good fit of the observed data. The results showed that with pH 3.7 the growth probabilities were small (<10−5) for nisin concentrations above 50 IU/mL. At 0.05 growth probability, minimum values of pH were established between 3.8 and 4.6 to inhibit the growth with the nisin synergistic action in concentration of 0 and 20 IU/mL, respectively, when the juice is incubated at 30C. The logistic model obtained can provide data to be used in quality control and at processes development.
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
This work applied predictive microbiology to develop a logistic model that can be used to reduce the recontamination of apple juice. The model obtained can be immediately used to food quality control, quality management, risk assessment and management, hazard analysis by control critical point, good manufacturing practices and cost reducing by allowing the prediction. The results also show that nisin plays an important role in the control of apple juice contamination by Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris and it can be used in combination with pH, soluble solids concentration and temperature.