Profiling Potentially Violent Youth: Statistical and Conceptual Problems

Sewell, Kenneth W.; Mendelsohn, Michaela

doi:10.1207/s15326918cs0303_2

Cited by 33 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The central difference lies in the outcomes implied by each term. With the frame of "violence prediction" or even "violence risk assessment," the implicit outcome is maximizing the accuracy of the assessor's predictions-to be able to gauge accurately who is more likely to be violent, and the circumstances under which the probability is greatest (Sewell & Mendelsohn, 2000). With a frame of violence prevention, however, the outcome emphasis shifts from optimizing predictive accuracy to effecting appropriate interventions.…”

Section: Fear Of School Violence Versus Actual Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some violence prevention options, such as zero tolerance policies, have been criticized as overly punitive (Hyman & Perone, 1998;Tebo, 2000). Others, such as behavioral profiling and computer programs that identify students at risk, have raised widespread concern among parents, students, policymakers, and even the U.S. Secretary of Education for their potential to infringe on students' civil liberties and to unfairly label or stigmatize certain students as "dangerous" (Cooper, 2000;Morse, 2000;Sewell & Mendelsohn, 2000;Steinberg, 2000).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating risk for targeted violence in schools: Comparing risk assessment, threat assessment, and other approaches

Reddy¹,

Borum

Berglund³

et al. 2001

Psychology in the Schools

178

109

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In the wake of recent school shootings, fear over violence in schools has prompted increased requests for psychologists, educators, and law enforcement professionals to assist in preventing future school violence incidents. We attempt to lay a foundation for developing effective assessment and prevention approaches by first distinguishing planned school-based attacks from other forms of school and youth violence. We then review the three assessment approaches that have been advocated and used in some jurisdictions (profiling, guided professional judgment, automated decision-making) and demonstrate why they are inappropriate-and potentially harmful-in preventing planned school-based attacks. We then describe the contours of the threat assessment approach, developed by the U.S. Secret Service to prevent assassinations, and examine its utility for responding to communications or behaviors of concern that students may present in school settings.

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Section: Fear Of School Violence Versus Actual Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating risk for targeted violence in schools: Comparing risk assessment, threat assessment, and other approaches

Reddy¹,

Borum

Berglund³

et al. 2001

Psychology in the Schools

178

109

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As noted, each approach, such as risk assessment and threat assessment, carries certain benefi ts and risks. Many approaches, such as the identifi cation of 'profi les' of school shooters, carry a signifi cant risk of overidentifi cation or false positives (Sewell & Mendelsohn, 2000). Furthermore, data collected regarding risk factors for other types of delinquency or aggression may not prove useful in the prediction of school shooting (Borum, 2000).…”

Section: The Data On School Shootersmentioning

confidence: 99%

The school shooting/violent video game link: causal relationship or moral panic?

Ferguson

2008

Journal Invest Psychology

135

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“…However well intended these efforts, they are constrained by the technical and statistical limitations of accurately predicting low-incident behavior such as school shootings (Derzon, 2001;Sewell & Mendelsohn, 2000). Nonetheless, given the high stakes involved in injury prevention and promoting school safety, steps must be taken to implement purposeful policies and procedures to supportively respond in instances when a threat of danger on school campuses is present.…”

Section: Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Determining cut-off points necessarily invokes a complex decision-making process (that in many cases seems to be poorly specified) in which judgments are made (either implicitly or explicitly) about the relative cost-benefit of hit, miss, and false-larm rates. [See Reddy et al (2001) and Sewell and Mendelsohn (2000) for a discussion of these considerations as they pertain to the prediction of dangerousness for school violence.] In using the YRBS to predict weapon Survey (1993Survey ( , 1995Survey ( , and 1997 Note.…”

Section: Psychometric Issues In the Prediction Of Weapon Possessionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting school weapon possession: A secondary analysis of the youth risk behavior surveillance survey

Furlong

Bates

Smith

2001

Psychology in the Schools

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As school psychologists are asked to help schools evaluate the level of violence risk posed by specific students, they need to fully consider the technical adequacy of any test or procedure that is proposed to "predict" future violent behavior or conditions. In this article, we contribute to this discussion by examining responses of 40,435 students from the 1993, 1995, and 1997 administrations of the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey. Student self-reported school risk behaviors and experiences are used to "predict" recent weapon possession on school campuses and to illustrate the use of receiver operating characteristic curves to evaluate the performance of a test for prediction purposes. An index of nine school risk behaviors was moderately correlated (r ϭ .36) with school weapon possession. However, when the accuracy of using this school risk index to predict weapon possession is evaluated, it is found that the area under the ROC curve was approximately .75, a moderate-to-large effect size but still demonstrating inadequate prediction at the individual student level. Further, there were twice as many frequent weapon carriers with zero school risks than with 7-9 risks, suggesting that attention directed toward violence risk profiles may promote inattention to another group of students who engage in potentially highrisk behaviors at school. It is argued that school psychologists should consider school violence appraisals within a developmental, long-term model. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.As a scientific discipline, psychology has been concerned with the exploration, discovery, understanding, and prediction of human behavior. Of these, prediction has emerged as a crucial but often elusive goal for professional psychology. Industrial-organizational psychologists are asked to predict worker productivity, job satisfaction, and consumer trends. Social psychologists predict patterns of interpersonal attraction, motivational tendencies, and group behaviors. Clinical psychologists predict atypical or maladaptive behavior patterns. Developmental psychologists predict cognitive, interpersonal, and emotional trajectories. As a subspecialization bridging the gap between psychology and education, school psychology has been associated most prominently with the prediction of student learning and school adjustment. In fact, the process of assessing present probabilities and future conditions is a daily aspect of the school psychology profession. In this context, prediction consists of the process of compiling information in order to make judgments about the probability that a condition is present (e.g., a math disability) and that a future state is likely to occur (math achievement will continue to lag without appropriate instructional support, among other undesirable sequelae). Such "predictions" rely upon an array of data sources including classroom observations, standardized test batteries, developmental histories, parent and teacher reports, and clinical judgments, to name but a few. Generally speaking, school psych...

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Profiling Potentially Violent Youth: Statistical and Conceptual Problems

Cited by 33 publications

References 28 publications

Evaluating risk for targeted violence in schools: Comparing risk assessment, threat assessment, and other approaches

Evaluating risk for targeted violence in schools: Comparing risk assessment, threat assessment, and other approaches

The school shooting/violent video game link: causal relationship or moral panic?

Predicting school weapon possession: A secondary analysis of the youth risk behavior surveillance survey

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