Projected Changes in Mid-Twenty-First-Century Extreme Maximum Pavement Temperature in Canada

Abstract

Future climate warming is virtually certain to bring about an increase in the frequency of heat extremes. Highway design and pavement selection are based on a temperature regime that reflects the local climate zone. Increasing heat extremes could, therefore, shift some areas into a different performance grade (PG) for pavement, and more-heat-resistant materials are associated with increased infrastructure costs. This study combines observations, output from global climate models, and a statistical model to investigate changes in 20-yr return values of extreme maximum pavement temperature TPmax. From a multimodel range of simulated TPmax, future changes in PG are computed for 17 major Canadian cities. Relative to a 1981–2000 baseline, summertime Canada-wide warming of 1°–3°C is projected for 2041–70. As a result, climate change is likely to bring about profound changes to the spatial distribution of PG, with the severity of the changes directly linked to the severity of the projected warming. Even under weak simulated warming, an increase in PG is projected for greater Toronto, which is Canada’s largest urban area; under moderate (strong) warming 7 of 17 (9 of 17) major cities exhibit an increase. The influence of model spatial resolution is evaluated by comparing the results from global climate models with output from a set of regional climate models focused on North America. With the exception of mountainous terrain in western Canada, spatial resolution is not a major determining factor for projections of future PG changes.

Incorporating the impacts of climate change into infrastructure life cycle assessments: A case study of pavement service life performance

“…The results indicate that climate change is likely to not greatly impact the flexible pavement section under consideration in the near term (2011–2040), whereas it is likely that the latter half of this century may lead to significantly accelerated pavement degradation for which design should be adapted accordingly. For instance, the maximum and minimum pavement temperature, T max and T min , were calculated ( T max following Fletcher, Matthews, Andrey, & Saunders, and T min following MAPA, ) to be 61 and −20 °C (S1), 63 and −14 °C (S2), 64 and −11 °C (S3), and 66 and −7.6 °C (S4). The corresponding performance grade (PG) of the bitumen layers for the four scenarios would then be PG64‐16 (S1), PG64‐16 (S2), PG64‐16 for 2041–2070 (S3), and PG70‐16 for 2071–2100 (S4).…”

Climate change impact and adaptation for highway asphalt pavements: a literature review

“…Fletcher et al estimated the change in pavement temperature for the selected Superpave asphalt binder grade for the future climate in Canada. They concluded that nine out of 17 cities exhibited an increase in asphalt binder grade (Fletcher et al 2016). In a similar study, Shafiee et al determine the influence of climate change on short, medium, and long-term future Performance Graded Asphalt Cements (PGAC) selection.…”

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Asphalt Binder Grade Selection and its Implications

“…Temperature rise can negatively affect the dynamic modulus (E*) of the surface hot-mix asphalt layer, which leads to reduction in the service life of pavement ( 13 ). The major advantages for consideration of the temperature factor are: (i) the uncertainties of prediction of temperature related to climate change are less than for other climate factors ( 14 , 15 ); (ii) the impact of temperature is significantly higher than that of other factors ( 16 – 21 ); and (iii) temperature plays a vital role in the selection of pavement surface materials ( 22 – 24 ).…”