Projected climate and agronomic implications for corn production in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Corn has been a pillar of American agriculture for decades and continues to receive much attention from the scientific community for its potential to meet the food, feed and fuel needs of a growing human population in a changing climate. By midcentury, global temperature increase is expected to exceed 2°C where local effects on heat, cold and precipitation extremes will vary. The Northeast United States is a major dairy producer, corn consumer, and is cited as the fastest warming region in the contiguous U.S. It is important to understand how key agronomic climate variables affect corn growth and development so that adaptation strategies can be tailored to local climate changes. We analyzed potential local effects of climate change on corn growth and development at three major dairy locations in the Northeast (Syracuse, New York; State College, Pennsylvania and Landisville, Pennsylvania) using downscaled projected climate data (2000–2100) from nine Global Climate Models under two emission pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). Our analysis indicates that corn near the end of the 21st century will experience fewer spring and fall freezes, faster rate of growing degree day accumulation with a reduction in time required to reach maturity, greater frequencies of daily high temperature ≥35°C during key growth stages such as silking-anthesis and greater water deficit during reproductive (R1-R6) stages. These agronomic anomalies differ between the three locations, illustrating varying impacts of climate change in the more northern regions vs. the southern regions of the Northeast. Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest water deficit stages (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet local needs.

Engineering 6-phosphogluconate dehydrogenase to improve heat tolerance in maize seed development

“…High temperatures affect grain yield with up to 50% yield loss, which can be caused by a variety of mechanisms (22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27). Heat can reduce seed set by accelerating plant development, causing asynchrony between male and female gamete development as well as reducing ovary and pollen viability (28)(29)(30). Accelerated development during grain-fill reduces the time available for seed storage molecule accumulation (6).…”

Planting Green Effects on Corn and Soybean Production

“…Summer drought in humid parts of the Americas and Europe can be common (Griffiths and Bradley, 2007; Hatfield et al, 2015; IPCC, 2014; Tobin et al, 2015). Cover crop residues can act as a mulch and benefit main crops by conserving summer soil moisture (Blanco‐Canqui et al, 2015; Clark et al, 1997; Unger and Vigil, 1998; Vincent‐Caboud et al, 2017), which could benefit many growers in these regions (Berman et al, 2012; Prasad et al, 2018).…”

Impacts of climate change on agro-climatic suitability of major food crops and crop diversification potential in Ghana

“…Maize responds to both warming and increased rainfall variability as water deficit can cause reduced growth by allocating more carbon to the root system, reducing leaf expansion and photosynthesis. Higher temperature, meanwhile, can cause loss of pollen viability, damage to tissue enzymes and accelerated senescence [87]. These severe impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa have already been reported elsewhere [60, 61, 88].…”