Projection of compound wind and precipitation extremes in China based on Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models

Abstract

Extreme precipitation and extreme wind may lead to catastrophic impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, human dwellings and settlements. The concurrence of the two extremes, compound wind and precipitation extremes (CWPEs), may cause even larger impacts than the univariate counterparts. Under global warming with increased weather and climate extremes, there is a necessity to explore projected changes of CWPEs in the future. Based on daily precipitation and surface wind speed from observations (CN05.1) and simulations of Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, we assess changes of CWPEs in the mainland of China in the future. By defining CWPEs based on the 98th percentile threshold in summer seasons (June–July–August [JJA]) in historical periods (1995–2014), we first explore the model performance in simulating precipitation, wind speed and CWPEs in China during JJA in historical periods. We then compute the projected changes of CWPEs in the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060) and long‐term (2081–2100) periods under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. The occurrence of CWPEs is projected to increase in three future periods, particularly in the south and east China. Though a slight increase of CWPEs is shown under SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5, the projected changes of CWPEs under SSP5‐8.5 show a dramatic increase (around 46%) in the long‐term period. Our assessment of projected changes in CWPEs can provide useful information to cope with the impact of CWPEs in China under climate change.

Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale

“…This could be carried out by using the multiple RCMs that participate in CORDEX [45,103] and with more GCM forcing in CMIP5 or CMIP6. Compound climate extremes usually result in greater impacts on human lives and society [104,105]. The population's exposure to compound extremes should also be investigated on the convection-permitting scale in future studies.…”

Intensification and Poleward Shift of Compound Wind and Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate

“…By the end of the 21st Century, CWPE frequencies are estimated to increase over 70% and 80% of landmasses under moderate and high emissions respectively (Meng et al., 2022; Ridder et al., 2022), with particular increases over the coastal North Atlantic, East and South Asia (Yaddanapudi et al., 2022). However, there is generally no knowledge about changes over the ocean, which also prevented the identification of systematic spatial patterns in the changes of the CWPE distribution worldwide.…”

Compound wind and precipitation extremes at a global scale based on CMIP6 models: Evaluation, projection and uncertainty

“…Yaddanapudi et al (2022) examined future projections of CWPE events for the coastal areas impacted by tropical cyclones on a global scale using CMIP6 models. Based on the CMIP6 models, Wu et al (2022) and Meng et al (2022) evaluated the future changes of compound dry and hot events and CWPEs in China, respectively. It can be seen that CWPEs have received increasing attention in recent years and there has been a gradual increase in the study of such compound extreme events using the CMIP6 model.…”