Projection of Korean Probable Maximum Precipitation under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, air temperature and humidity of the future are expected to gradually increase over the current. In this study, future PMPs are estimated by using future dew point temperature projection data which are obtained from RCM data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. First, bias included in future dew point temperature projection data which is provided on a daily basis is corrected through a quantile-mapping method. Next, using a scale-invariance technique, 12-hour duration 100-year return period dew point temperatures which are essential input data for PMPs estimation are estimated from bias-corrected future dew point temperature data. After estimating future PMPs, it can be shown that PMPs in all future climate change scenarios (AR5 RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) are very likely to increase.

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in Korea using a Regional Climate Model

“…The RCM_PMP is identified on the basis of each scenario, then it is compared to the existing PMP value which has been estimated by Lee et al [26], which include the most recent PMP estimates in Korea. As mentioned in the introduction, there are some problems with nationally published reports about PMP.…”

“…As mentioned in the introduction, there are some problems with nationally published reports about PMP. To overcome these problems, Lee et al [26] improved the existing PMP estimation method and calculated the PMP in Korea by applying the latest PMP estimation method suggested by WMO (2009).…”

“…Therefore, the RCM_PMP was estimated on the basis of this scenario. Traditional PMPs were estimated for areas from 25 to 19,600 km 2 and for durations of 1 to 72 h [26]. Hence, a comparison of RCM_PMP and PMP needs a specific area and a duration.…”

“…Because the complete spatial precipitation field at 3-km resolution and 1-h time increment was reconstructed over Korea, one can easily compute the basin-average precipitation. Traditional PMPs were estimated for areas from 25 to 19,600 km 2 and for durations of 1 to 72 h [26]. Hence, a comparison of RCM_PMP and PMP needs a specific area and a duration.…”

The Spatial and Temporal Structure of Extreme Rainfall Trends in South Korea

“…A large number of studies have reported significant changes in extreme precipitation worldwide [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Additionally, it is reported by many studies that the extreme rainfall simulated by global climate models under climate change scenarios change in the future [10][11][12][13][14][15][16]. Since the changes in the extreme rainfalls can alter strategy and policy in water resources as well as design criteria of water-related infrastructures, understanding the change in spatial and temporal variability of rainfall extremes is essential to efficiently managing water resources and preventing the damages from water-related disasters such as floods and landslides.…”