Psychological Theory and the Illusion of Scientific Prediction

Klein, Stan B.

doi:10.1007/s11013-021-09757-y

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…This sense of unity, revelation, and ecstasy has been described by mystics throughout the ages and is common to the descriptions of the divine across many faiths. Science distrusts the subjective, but Klein argues that no science of the mind can progress if it excludes subjectivity, "the very aspect of reality of which we can be most certain" (Klein, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stairway to Heaven

Singh¹

2022

J Nerv Ment Dis

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Mystical and spiritual experiences have been reported throughout human history. Causal explanations for these range from psychopathology of mental illness, drugs such as hallucinogens, neurological disorders including temporal lobe epilepsy, and genuine mystical or spiritual awakening. There is a common core of phenomena in such experiences, as described both in historical accounts and recent research, but also evidence of cultural specificity. This article is a personal account of such an experience, which occurred in a postanesthetic state. A striking feature of the experience was noesis: a sense of revelation and complete understanding. I argue that while there must be a neural basis to these phenomena, it is difficult to reduce the subjective meaning of the experience purely to a brain dysfunction. Reconciling mechanism and meaning of such experiences remains a challenge for both neuroscience and philosophy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stairway to Heaven

Singh¹

2022

J Nerv Ment Dis

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“…Merely directional hypotheses are nearly impossible to falsify empirically based on nonsignificant findings because it can always be argued that the population effect still points in that direction, but the findings just did not have enough power to detect it. Indeed, most theories in social-personality psychology do not make “strong” predictions that include an effect size ( Klein, 2022 ; Lykken, 1968 ).…”

Section: Sample Size Determination Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power to Detect What? Considerations for Planning and Evaluating Sample Size

Giner-Sorolla,

Montoya,

Reifman

et al. 2024

Pers Soc Psychol Rev

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Academic Abstract In the wake of the replication crisis, social and personality psychologists have increased attention to power analysis and the adequacy of sample sizes. In this article, we analyze current controversies in this area, including choosing effect sizes, why and whether power analyses should be conducted on already-collected data, how to mitigate the negative effects of sample size criteria on specific kinds of research, and which power criterion to use. For novel research questions, we advocate that researchers base sample sizes on effects that are likely to be cost-effective for other people to implement (in applied settings) or to study (in basic research settings), given the limitations of interest-based minimums or field-wide effect sizes. We discuss two alternatives to power analysis, precision analysis and sequential analysis, and end with recommendations for improving the practices of researchers, reviewers, and journal editors in social-personality psychology. Public Abstract Recently, social-personality psychology has been criticized for basing some of its conclusions on studies with low numbers of participants. As a result, power analysis, a mathematical way to ensure that a study has enough participants to reliably “detect” a given size of psychological effect, has become popular. This article describes power analysis and discusses some controversies about it, including how researchers should derive assumptions about effect size, and how the requirements of power analysis can be applied without harming research on hard-to-reach and marginalized communities. For novel research questions, we advocate that researchers base sample sizes on effects that are likely to be cost-effective for other people to implement (in applied settings) or to study (in basic research settings). We discuss two alternatives to power analysis, precision analysis and sequential analysis, and end with recommendations for improving the practices of researchers, reviewers, and journal editors in social-personality psychology.

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“…Merely directional hypotheses are nearly impossible to falsify empirically based on nonsignificant findings, because it can always be argued that the population effect still points in that direction, but the findings just did not have enough power to detect it. Indeed, most theories in social-personality psychology do not make "strong" predictions that include an effect size (Lykken, 1968;Klein, 2022).…”

Section: Principles Of Effect Size Determinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Power to Detect What? Considerations for Planning and Evaluating Sample Size

Giner‐Sorolla

Montoya²,

Aberson³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In the wake of the replication crisis, social and personality psychologists have increased attention to power analysis and the adequacy of sample sizes. In this paper, we analyze current controversies in this area, including choosing effect size, why and whether power analyses should be conducted on already-collected data, how to mitigate negative effects of sample size criteria on specific kinds of research, and which power criterion to use. Because our conventions about effect sizes are less clear than some models of inference demand, we advocate that effect size targets be chosen for basis in solid evidence and practical relevance to basic and applied research, rather than on the basis of minimal or field-wide effect sizes. We discuss two alternatives to power analysis, precision analysis and sequential analysis, and end with recommendations for improving the practices of researchers, reviewers, and journal editors in social-personality psychology.

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Psychological Theory and the Illusion of Scientific Prediction

Cited by 4 publications

References 32 publications

Stairway to Heaven

Stairway to Heaven

Power to Detect What? Considerations for Planning and Evaluating Sample Size

Power to Detect What? Considerations for Planning and Evaluating Sample Size

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