Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Mauro, M. Di; Bruijn, K de; Meloni, Matteo

doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0207-4

Cited by 53 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The mortality functions were derived from the 1953 flood disaster in the Netherlands, but are assumed to be still valid for the current situation in all areas protected by flood defences. The mortality functions were validated with data from Canvey Island (UK), which also flooded in 1953 (Di Mauro and De Bruijn, 2012;Di Mauro et al, 2012). The results indicate that the general pattern of fatalities and hazardous locations is reproduced rather well.…”

Section: Combining Parameters To Flood Fatality Hazardmentioning

confidence: 97%

Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

Bruijn

Klijn

Pas

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there is currently an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk-reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does not, however, make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard and flood fatality hazard.

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Section: Combining Parameters To Flood Fatality Hazardmentioning

confidence: 97%

Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

Bruijn

Klijn

Pas

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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show abstract

“…The characteristics of the flood and floodwater along with the characteristics and behaviour of the population determine the likelihood of death due to flooding (Di Mauro et al, 2012). It is widely recognized that, in developed countries, the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs as a result of inexperienced people entering floodwater either in boats, vehicles or on foot (Franklin et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jonkman and Kelman (2005) reported that in the Netherlands 33 % of deaths from drowning occur in a vehicle and 25 % as a pedestrian. Many casualties in fact occur when people try to move in floodwaters (Di Mauro et al, 2012;Chanson et al, 2014); in this case previous experiences may play a role (Siegrist and Gutscher, 2008). Thus, understanding the instability mechanisms and identifying the safest behaviour when in a vehicle or as a pedestrian unexpectedly facing a flood might be of crucial importance for management strategies (Franklin et al, 2014;Di Mauro et al, 2012) and emergency planning (Simonovic and Ahmad, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamics of pedestrians' instability in floodwaters

Arrighi

Oumeraci

Castelli

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. People's safety is the first objective to be fulfilled by flood risk mitigation measures, and according to existing reports on the causes of casualties, most of the fatalities are due to inappropriate behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. Currently available experimental data on people instability in floodwaters suffer from a large dispersion primarily depending on the large variability of the physical characteristics of the subjects. This paper introduces a dimensionless mobility parameter θ P for people partly immersed in flood flows, which accounts for both flood and subject characteristics. The parameter θ P is capable of identifying a unique threshold of instability depending on a Froude number, thus reducing the scatter of existing experimental data. Moreover, a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model describing the detailed geometry of a human body and reproducing a selection of critical pairs of water depth and velocity is presented. The numerical results in terms of hydrodynamic forces and force coefficients are analysed and discussed. Both the mobility parameter θ P and the numerical results hint at the crucial role of the Froude number and relative submergence as the most relevant dimensionless numbers to interpret the loss of stability. Finally, the mobility parameter θ P is compared with an analogous dimensionless parameter for vehicles' instability in floodwaters, providing a new contribution to support flood risk management and educating people.

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“…Storylines then reveal for those assumptions how many people are located where, how many need to be rescued, or are in need of shelter, etc. In cases where much data are available, micro-scale models such as the Life Safety Model of BC Hydro could be used to simulate the behaviour of inhabitants (Di Mauro et al 2012;Lumbroso et al 2010).…”

Section: Tools To Analyse Flood Patterns and Flood Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The storyline approach: a new way to analyse and improve flood event management

Bruijn

Lips²,

Gersonius

et al. 2015

Nat Hazards

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Common flood risk analyses often focus on direct impacts corresponding to the maximum depths of flood events. However, this information is not sufficient for risk communication, for the design of flood emergency plans and for the selection of risk management measures. For those issues, not only a static view of the maximum flood intensity is required, but also an understanding of the sequence of events from the rise of the threat to its recovery (including the action and reaction of actors). This paper discusses a new, additional approach to support flood risk management: the storyline approach, which serves to analyse the whole sequence of events during a flood. It starts from the initial rise of the flood threat, then describes the actual flooding and ends with the recovery from the flood impacts. It shows in a structured way the most important subsystems (water system, critical infrastructure system) and actors (water managers, local authorities, critical infrastructure operators, inhabitants) and their interactions. The application of the storyline approach to Dordrecht, the Netherlands, illustrates its use not only for flood event management, but also for the analysis of critical infrastructure vulnerability. The approach is designed to be applied in workshops with all relevant actors. The storylines support the communication of what might happen and help to develop consistent flood risk management strategies and emergency plans.

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Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Cited by 53 publications

References 13 publications

Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

Hydrodynamics of pedestrians' instability in floodwaters

The storyline approach: a new way to analyse and improve flood event management

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