No abstract

To date the work done in the UK to assess the loss of life and evacuation times for flood risk areas has been limited. To provide the most accurate assessment of loss of life and evacuation times a complex model is required. This paper details the application of a prototype, agent-based Life Safety Model (LSM) to estimate the loss of life in two areas of the Thames Estuary. The LSM models individual receptors (e.g. people and cars) and their dynamic interaction with the floodwater. The LSM estimates deaths from: drowning; exhaustion; building collapse; and vehicles being swept away, as well as evacuation times.The LSM offers a scientifically robust method of assessing residual risk behind flood defences and downstream of dams in terms of fatalities. Importantly, it allows the comparison of different emergency management strategies (e.g. the use of safe havens) that can assist in reducing the loss of life during future floods and dam breaks. The model was validated against historical data from the Canvey Island flood in 1953, during which 58 people lost their lives. The LSM was then applied to the Thamesmead embayment to assess the results for a range of scenarios.

Canvey Island is located in the Thames Estuary. The island is a low-lying alluvial fan covering an area of 18.5 km 2 , with an average height of approximately 1 m below the mean high water level. Canvey Island is protected against inundation by a network of flood defences. In 1953, the island was inundated by the "Great North Sea Flood" that breached the island's flood defences and resulted in the deaths of 58 people and the destruction of several hundred houses. As part of the EC funded research project FLOODsite, work was undertaken to set up both a hydrodynamic and an agent-based loss-of-life model of Canvey Island for the 1953 flood. The objective of the work was to obtain a better understanding of the 1953 flood event and to analyse the consequences of breaches in the island's flood defences in terms of loss of life and injuries. The work undertaken indicates that the agent-based life safety model can provide a scientifically robust method to assess loss of life, injuries and evacuation times for areas that are at risk from flooding in the UK.