Range increment or range detriment? Predicting potential changes in distribution caused by climate change for the endemic high-Andean lizard Phymaturus palluma

Vicenzi, Nadia; Corbalán, Valeria; Miles, Donald B.; Sinervo, Barry; Ibargüengoytía, Nora R.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2016.12.030

Cited by 43 publications

(69 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Two out of the three Liolaemidae possible climate change‐driven extinctions reported by Sinervo et al () are viviparous Andean species. Subsequent studies also predicted future extinctions of populations of other viviparous Liolaemidae in Patagonia near their warm distribution border due to restriction of activity by temperature increase (Kubisch, Corbalán, Ibargüengoytía, & Sinervo, ; Vicenzi, Corbalán, Miles, Sinervo, & Ibargüengoytía, ). In our case, even when considering the thermal requirements of pregnant females, restriction hours did not show significant negative effect on the distribution and abundance of any of the studied Liolaemus species, although they had a non‐significant negative effect on L. orientalis .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Lizards in the mist: Thermal niches constrained by habitat and microclimates in the Andes of southern Bolivia

Jiménez-Robles

Riva

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim To understand how the activity budgets of ectotherms vary in mountain areas with high microclimatic and habitat heterogeneity, and how these factors together with habitat modulate the assemblage of ectotherm communities. Location Tajzara Basin, Cordillera de Sama (3,600–4,300 m a.s.l.), Department of Tarija, Bolivia. Taxon Four lizard species of the genus Liolaemus. Methods After parameterizing the thermal physiology of each species and recording operative temperature time series with dataloggers, we calculated activity budgets for every species across 30 sampling sites. By multimodel inference we evaluated how activity budgets varied across the topography. We also assessed how abundances of each species were predicted by activity budgets, restriction time, temperature deviation, habitat covers and exposure to cold microclimate. Results Activity budgets were not only influenced by elevation but also by the exposure to cold air that comes through saddles from the eastern side of the mountain divide. Although thermal physiological parameters were relatively similar among the species, their abundances were conditioned to different extents by activity budgets, habitat and microclimates. Main conclusions The abundance and distribution of each species across these lizard communities reflect the microclimatic heterogeneity originated by complex topography, which uncouples activity budgets from elevation. Only one species was confined to cold microclimate refugia with higher exposure to Föhn effect. Despite having a relatively similar thermal aspect of fundamental niches, lizards may differ in their realized niches by habitat selection. Habitat specialization could compromise the persistence of some species under global warming by reducing the dispersal possibilities to certain areas where population sustainability might be impaired in the long term. Understanding the heterogeneity of microclimates and habitats and the physiology of the species partially explains their distribution at local scale, and provides insights on how to best confront upcoming climate change effects.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Lizards in the mist: Thermal niches constrained by habitat and microclimates in the Andes of southern Bolivia

Jiménez-Robles

Riva

2019

Journal of Biogeography

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“…, Vicenzi et al. ) with two‐way ANOVAs using season and microhabitat category as factors. We also tested effect of season and microhabitat category on thermal quality ( d e ) with two‐way ANOVAs using season and microhabitat as factors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermoregulatory behavior and high thermal preference buffer impact of climate change in a Namib Desert lizard

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Knowledge of the thermal ecology of a species can improve model predictions for temperatureinduced population collapse, which in light of climate change is increasingly important for species with limited distributions. Here, we use a multi-faceted approach to quantify and integrate the thermal ecology, properties of the thermal habitat, and past and present distribution of the diurnal, xeric-adapted, and active-foraging Namibian lizard Pedioplanis husabensis (Sauria: Lacertidae) to model its local extinction risk under future climate change scenarios. We asked whether climatic conditions in various regions of its range are already so extreme that local extirpations of P. husabensis have already occurred, or whether this micro-endemic species is adapted to these extreme conditions and uses behavior to mitigate the environmental challenges. To address this, we collected thermoregulation and climate data at a micro-scale level and combined it with micro-and macroclimate data across the species' range to model extinction risk. We found that P. husabensis inhabits a thermally harsh environment, but also has high thermal preference. In cooler parts of its range, individuals are capable of leaving thermally favorable conditions-based on the species' thermal preference-unused during the day, probably to maintain low metabolic rates. Furthermore, during the summer, we observed that individuals regulate at body temperatures below the species' high thermal preference to avoid body temperatures approaching the critical thermal maximum. We find that populations of this species are currently persisting even at the hottest localities within the species' geographic distribution. We found no evidence of range shifts since the 1960s despite a documented increase in air temperatures. Nevertheless, P. husabensis only has a small safety margin between the upper limit of its thermal preference and the critical thermal maximum and might undergo range reductions in the near future under even the most moderate climate change scenarios.

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“…8). Computing range expansions with eco-physiological species distribution models (Vicenzi et al 2017) would be the logical next step in identifying the best areas for new national parks. These new species distribution models could also be used to predict where as yet undiscovered populations might be found in the present day.…”

Section: Competition and Range Expansions: Run Up Or Go North (In Elementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal‐effect rescue of toad‐headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau

Sinervo

Miles

et al. 2018

Integrative Zoology

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Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Range increment or range detriment? Predicting potential changes in distribution caused by climate change for the endemic high-Andean lizard Phymaturus palluma

Cited by 43 publications

References 74 publications

Lizards in the mist: Thermal niches constrained by habitat and microclimates in the Andes of southern Bolivia

Lizards in the mist: Thermal niches constrained by habitat and microclimates in the Andes of southern Bolivia

Thermoregulatory behavior and high thermal preference buffer impact of climate change in a Namib Desert lizard

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal‐effect rescue of toad‐headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau

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