Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Rahmstorf, Stefan; Cazenave, Anny; Church, John A.; Hansen, James E.; Keeling, Ralph F.; Parker, D. E.; Somerville, Richard C. J.

doi:10.1126/science.1136843

Cited by 557 publications

(315 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For example, Woodworth (1987Woodworth ( , 1990) remarked on the relative lowering of UK and European sea level during the 1970s and 1980s, while Tsimplis and Baker (2000), Tsimplis and Josey (2001) and Tsimplis et al (2005) attempted to explain the even stronger change in Mediterranean sea-level trends after 1960 in terms of regional hydrography and meteorological forcing related to the NAO. From Figure 3, it can be seen that much of the continuing sea-level rise had the post-1960s flattening-off not occurred, was restored and exceeded by the higher rates of the 1990s and possibly before (cf Church et al, 2004;Church and White 2006;Holgate and Woodworth, 2004;Rahmstorf et al, 2007). The 1990s rates were unquestionably high, as verified by the close agreement between independent tide gauge and altimeter information (Bindoff et al, 2007).…”

Section: Discussion Of the Characteristics Of Accelerationsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi‐decade and century timescales

Woodworth

White

Jevrejeva

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

215

180

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ABSTRACT:A modification in the rate of change of sea level (i.e. an 'acceleration' or 'nonlinear trend') is an important climate-related signal, which requires confirmation and explanation. In this study, the evidence for accelerations in regional and global average sea level on timescales of several decades and longer is reviewed by inter-comparison of the recent findings of different researchers and by inspection of original tide gauge records. Most sea-level data originate from Europe and North America, and both the sets display evidence for a positive acceleration, or 'inflexion', around 1920-1930 and a negative one around 1960. These inflexions are the main contributors to reported accelerations since the late 19th century, and to decelerations during the mid-to late 20th century. However, these characteristic features are not always found in records from other parts of the world. Although some aspects of the sea-level time series are consistent with changes in rates of globally averaged temperature changes, volcanic eruptions and natural climate variability, modelling undertaken so far has been unable to describe these features adequately. This emphasizes the need for a major enhancement of the sea-level data set, especially for those parts of the world without long tide gauge records, in order to obtain greater insight into the spatial dependence of accelerations. A number of complementary methods must be employed, of which salt marsh techniques offer the possibility of obtaining time series similar to those that would have been obtained from coastal tide gauges.

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Section: Discussion Of the Characteristics Of Accelerationsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi‐decade and century timescales

Woodworth

White

Jevrejeva

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

215

180

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Climatologists make the following predictions for Southeast Asia before the end of this century: a 2.4-2.7°C rise in mean annual temperature (4°C in subtropical China), a 7% increase in wet season rainfall, and a drier dry season (Christensen et al 2007;Bickford et al 2010). Sea levels are expected to rise 1-2 m by 2150 and 2.5-5 m by 2300 (WBGU 2007;Rahmstorf et al 2007;Woodruff and Woodruff 2008) (Fig. 3c).…”

Section: Patterns Of Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biogeography and conservation in Southeast Asia: how 2.7 million years of repeated environmental fluctuations affect today’s patterns and the future of the remaining refugial-phase biodiversity

2010

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Understanding the historical biogeography of this global biodiversity hotspot is as important to long-term conservation goals as ecology and evolution are to understanding current patterns and processes. Today's geography is, however, misleading and typical of only *2% of the last million years; [90% of that time the region's land area was 1.5-2.0 times larger as mean sea levels were 62 m below today's, climates were cooler, and extensive forests and savanna covered the emerged Sunda plains. The region's land area varied two-fold as sea levels fluctuated up to ±50 m with each of *50 Pleistocene glacial cycles, and forests expanded and contracted with oscillations in land area and seasonality. This dynamic geographic history is relevant to the development of biogeographic regionalism and shows that it is today's forests that are refugial, not those of the Last Glacial Maximum. This history affects how species will adapt or shift their ranges in response to global warming and further decreases in land area (submergence of low-lying coastal areas) during the 21st century. The alternative is mass species extinction. The biota is also threatened by the continued destruction of forest, destruction of Mekong River flood-pulse based ecosystems, and continued human population growth. Human biogeography will become more important in conservation planning as tens of millions of people who depend on protected area forests, riverine ecosystems, and coastal habitats become environmental refugees. Conservation scientists need to become more involved in regional ecological education, environmental stewardship, and ecosystem-based adaptation to sustain as much as possible of this rich biota and the ecological services it provides.

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“…The three simulations were typified as a lowest warming (GCM GISS_ER with IPCC storyline B1), moderate warming (GCM ECHAM5 SRES with storyline A2), and highest warming scenario (GCM IPSL_CM4 with storyline A2) (Salathé, 2005). Recent observed trends in emissions resemble or exceed those of the A2 IPCC storyline, which represents a future with more rapid economic growth and rapidly rising emissions than are seen in the B1 storyline (Rahmstorf et al, 2007). The data were produced by statistical downscaling the GCM output to a resolution of 1/8 degree (approximately 10 km Â 14 km; Salathé, 2005).…”

Section: Species Distribution and Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Carroll

Dunk

Moilanen

2010

Global Change Biology

198

186

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The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well-studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wideranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program MAXENT to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program ZONATION to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal-limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized-species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although corearea selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.

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Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections

Cited by 557 publications

References 3 publications

Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi‐decade and century timescales

Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi‐decade and century timescales

Biogeography and conservation in Southeast Asia: how 2.7 million years of repeated environmental fluctuations affect today’s patterns and the future of the remaining refugial-phase biodiversity

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest, USA

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