Recent frontiers of climate changes in East Asia at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C

Abstract

East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.

Inequality of Global Thermal Comfort Conditions Changes in a Warmer World

“…(2021). Note that our results regarding specific global warming levels represent a transient response, which is different from the stabilized response at the same global warming level (King et al., 2020; Zhang, You, Wu, et al., 2022; You et al., 2022).…”

“…In contrast to traditional approaches that presuppose ideal emission scenarios (e.g., Representative Concentration Pathways; van Vuuren et al., 2011), one may be more concerned with how different characteristics of regional climate change relative to mean global warming (James et al., 2017; Seneviratne et al., 2016; J. Zhang & Wang, 2022; W. Zhang & Zhou, 2020; You et al., 2022). Therefore, here we did not directly investigate climate change under the CMIP6 SSP emission scenarios.…”

“…Given that many climate indicators scale linearly with global mean temperature (GMT; Seneviratne et al, 2016), our analysis also accounts for changes in global and regional thermal comfort conditions as a function of GMT, following the method of Schwingshackl et al (2021). Note that our results regarding specific global warming levels represent a transient response, which is different from the stabilized response at the same global warming level (King et al, 2020;Zhang, You, Wu, et al, 2022;You et al, 2022).…”

Projected changes in mild weather frequency over China under a warmer climate

“…global mean temperature, sea level; Gillett et al 2021, Hermans et al 2021 or climate extremes (e.g. heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Lewis 2020, Ukkola et al 2020, Wang et al 2022, Dong et al 2022, Luo et al 2022, You et al 2022. While these aspects are important for public health, multiple facets of society, and the environment, focussing on the above neglects the study of meteorological conditions that occur more regularly and are of societal significance in a different way.…”

“…The purpose of this study is to investigate future changes in mild weather under a warmer climate using China as an example. China is a vast country with a wide variety of climate types, and the impact of climate change on mild weather changes may be of significant spatial heterogeneity (You et al 2022). A few studies have investigated climatology and the trend of mild weather over China in the past.…”