Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence

Crimp, Steven; Gobbett, David; Kokic, Philip; Nidumolu, Uday; Howden, Mark; Nicholls, Neville

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1763-5

Cited by 33 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…There is considerable long-term variability in the relationship between ENSO and Australian minimum temperatures (Crimp et al, 2015(Crimp et al, , 2016. Across autumn and winter, there is little change in the pattern of correlation between SOI and minimum temperatures between the 1960-1984and 1985periods.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent studies undertaking time series analyses on observed station temperature data have revealed that trends in extreme minimum temperatures (i.e. decile 1 or less) do not always follow the same direction as trends in mean minimum temperatures (Crimp et al, 2015(Crimp et al, , 2016Lee et al, 2015;Matiu et al, 2015). Thus, there is no a priori reason to believe that temporal trends in extremes and averages will exhibit the same spatial and temporal patterns (Lee et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Synoptic to large‐scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long‐term changes

Crimp

Nicholls

Kokic

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study documents the importance, and changes in the importance, of a suite of synoptic to large‐scale drivers of minimum temperature variability across the Australian region. The drivers investigated are the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index, atmospheric blocking, the Southern Annular Mode, and the position and intensity of the subtropical ridge. In most regions, individual drivers generally account for between about 5 and 10% of the interannual variability across Australia, although in some seasons and regions these drivers can collectively account for more than 60% of the observed variability. The amount of minimum temperature variance explained by individual drivers is highest in south‐eastern Australia in summer (December–February), where the drivers collectively account for 67% of the variance, due primarily to the relationships with blocking and ENSO. The varying importance of the drivers of minimum temperature variability between seasons and between two discrete periods (i.e. 1960–1984 and 1985–2015) has been investigated. In the more recent period the intensity of the subtropical ridge has played a more important role in minimum temperature variability, particularly in the south‐western and south‐eastern parts of Australia in summer (December–February), with the position of the subtropical ridge a feature of greater importance over much of Victoria in spring (September–November). For the more recent period the intensity of the subtropical ridge and the southern annular mode have been more important drivers of minimum temperature variability for autumn (March–May) and winter (June–August), respectively, across southern New South Wales and northern Victoria.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic to large‐scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long‐term changes

Crimp

Nicholls

Kokic

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…Heatwaves are one or several days of extremely high temperature (Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al 2016), whereas frosts occur on timescales that are similar to heatwaves but at the other end of the temperature scale. Interestingly, Crimp et al (2016) show somewhat surprisingly that the prevalence of frosts can increase despite an increase in mean atmospheric temperature. In the case of bushfires, high (but not necessary extreme) temperatures are a necessary but not sufficient condition for the occurrence of severe bushfires (Sharples et al 2016).…”

Section: Linking Large-scale Climate Processes To Australian Natural mentioning

confidence: 99%

Introduction to the special issue: historical and projected climatic changes to Australian natural hazards

2016

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“…In addition to record-low rainfall totals, the anomalously strong STR during June 2017 was associated with above-average daytime maximum temperatures and well below-average overnight minimum temperatures across much of southeastern Australia. Compared to the well-established links between STR and rainfall, there is less understanding of how the STR influences Australian temperature patterns, although a relationship between frost days and the STR has been previously identified for southern Australia (Crimp et al 2016;).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An increase in intensity of the STR in recent decades has been associated with decreases in southeast Australian rainfall (Timbal and Drosdowsky 2013), and has been proposed as a driver in the observed increase in frost days in parts of this region (Dittus et al 2015;Crimp et al 2016). The observed increase in frost days in the southeast has occurred despite the overall annual trend towards warmer minimum temperatures and a decrease in cold extremes on a national scale (Alexander and Arblaster 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between the subtropical ridge and Australian temperatures

Pepler¹,

Ashcroft²,

Trewin³

2018

JSHESS

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The intensity and latitude of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia is strongly associated with southeast Australian rainfall, particularly during the cool months of the year. We show that the subtropical ridge also exerts a strong influence on temperatures across much of Australia, with warmer daytime temperatures and more warm extremes across southern Australia when the subtropical ridge is stronger than average, which is largely independent of the relationship between the subtropical ridge and rainfall. A strong subtropical ridge is also linked to warmer than average minimum temperatures over southern Australia throughout much of the year, except from May to August when a strong ridge is associated with cooler mean minimum temperatures and an increased frequency of cool nights. This relationship, and the observed strengthening of the subtropical ridge during autumn and winter in recent decades, can partially explain the weaker warming trends in minimum temperatures in southeast Australia compared to elsewhere in the country over the period 1960-2016.

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Recent seasonal and long-term changes in southern Australian frost occurrence

Cited by 33 publications

References 33 publications

Synoptic to large‐scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long‐term changes

Synoptic to large‐scale drivers of minimum temperature variability in Australia – long‐term changes

Introduction to the special issue: historical and projected climatic changes to Australian natural hazards

The relationship between the subtropical ridge and Australian temperatures

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