Recent trends in smoking and the role of public policies: results from the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model

Levy, David T.; Nikolayev, Leonid; Mumford, Elizabeth A.

doi:10.1111/j.1360-0443.2005.01205.x

Cited by 104 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 24 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The number of lives saved each year is projected to increase as benefits from cessation increase and those who are deterred from smoking initiation reach an age of 35 when smokers have higher mortality risks than non-smokers. Consistent with our earlier models for the United States (Levy et al 2005b) and for Arizona (Levy, Bauer et al forthcoming Unlike a simple trend line prediction, the model also does reasonably well at predicting trends over various sub-periods of time corresponding to policy changes (the price increase and implementation of the media campaign in 1988, the reduction in the media campaign in 1993, the price increase in late 1998). California SimSmoke generally shows a larger drop between 1996 and 1999 and underestimates the drop between 1999 and 2002 relative to the other data sets, but the smoking prevalence estimates from the different data sets show different trends over these sub-periods.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model

et al. 2007

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SummaryTobacco control policies are examined utilizing a simulation model for California, the state with the longest running comprehensive program. We assess the impact of the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP) and surrounding price changes on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Modeling begins in 1988 and progresses chronologically to 2004, and considers four types of policies (taxes, mass media, clean air laws, and youth access policies) independently and as a package.The model is validated against existing smoking prevalence estimates. The difference in trends between predicted smoking rates from the model and other commonly used estimates of smoking prevalence for the overall period were generally small. The model also predicted some important changes in trend, which occurred with changes in policy.The California SimSmoke model estimates that tobacco control policies reduced smoking rates in California by an additional 25% relative to the level that they would have been if policies were kept at their 1988 level. By 2004, the model attributes over 60% of the reduction to price increases, over 25% of the overall effect to media policies, 10% to clean air laws, and only a small percent to youth access policies. The model estimates that over 5,000 lives will be saved in the year 2010 alone as a result of the CTCP and industry-initiated price increases, and that over 50,000 lives were saved over the period 1988-2010. Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive tobacco control strategies have significantly impacted smoking rates. Further tax increases should lead to additional lives saved, and additional

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence in California: Results from the California Tobacco Policy Simulation Model

et al. 2007

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As we reported, the fit of our predicted model for smoking prevalence in this group is only reasonable. Yet, the data showed that between 2000 and 2006, the proportion of smokers in the middle age group (30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38)(39)(40) in men among the lowest socioeconomic class in our study was 40% in 2000 and 43% in 2006. Secondly, the analysis was restricted to groups I and V. Because of changes in the nature of works and occupation in the late twentieth century, group V is gradually becoming smaller over time i.e.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Reducing inequalities in lung cancer incidence through smoking policies

et al. 2011

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Even under the best scenarios, inequality in lung cancer was not fully eliminated within 45 years period. Though the process is lengthy, rigorous interventions may reduce the expected widening of the future inequalities in lung cancer. Modelling exercise such as ours relies heavily on the quality of the input data and the assumptions, thus caution is needed in interpretation of our findings and should consider all the assumptions taken in the analysis.

show abstract

“…Despite the fact that tobacco is addictive, research on the effects of the price of tobacco products on population rates of smoking has repeatedly suggested that there is an inverse relationship between the price and consumption of cigarettes (Frieden et al, 2005;Levy et al, 2005aLevy et al, , b, 2006Niaura and Abrams, 2002). Further of all de-marketing strategies including anti-smoking advertising and legal restrictions on smoking, price increases on cigarettes have been found to bear the strongest relationship to population rates of smoking (Levy et al, 2005b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%