Among public tobacco control policies, price had the dominant effect on smoking prevalence between 1993 and 2003, because few states implemented other policies to the degree necessary to affect much change. Through continued tax increases, stronger clean air laws, extensive media campaigns and broader cessation treatment programs, there is the potential to have much larger reductions in smoking prevalence.

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The SimSmoke model suggests that the HP2010 smoking prevalence objective is unlikely to be attained. Although we are unlikely to reach the goals by meeting the HP2010 policy objectives, they could get us much closer to the goal. Emphasis should be placed on meeting the tax, clean air, media/comprehensive campaigns, and cessation treatment objectives.