Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. S. J.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7

Cited by 19 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…In particular, it suggests a future decrease in the forcing associated with eruptions currently injecting gases in the uppermost troposphere/lowermost stratosphere, but an increase for midstratospheric eruptions. For the latter eruptions, the magnitude of the SAOD increase projected from the aerosol box model compares to decrease in forcing associated with a future Tambora-like eruption in Hopcroft et al (2017). Figure 5 thus suggests that climate-volcano feedback related to plume dynamics would have climatic implications comparable to feedback related to the sensitivity of the response to volcanic forcing to the background climate (Fasullo et al, 2017;Hopcroft et al, 2017).…”

Section: Implications Of Our Results For Climate-volcano Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…For the latter eruptions, the magnitude of the SAOD increase projected from the aerosol box model compares to decrease in forcing associated with a future Tambora-like eruption in Hopcroft et al (2017). Figure 5 thus suggests that climate-volcano feedback related to plume dynamics would have climatic implications comparable to feedback related to the sensitivity of the response to volcanic forcing to the background climate (Fasullo et al, 2017;Hopcroft et al, 2017). We thus urge future studies on climate-volcano feedback to incorporate the impact of climate changes on the vertical distribution of volcanic gases in the atmosphere.…”

Section: Implications Of Our Results For Climate-volcano Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We thus urge future studies on climate‐volcano feedback to incorporate the impact of climate changes on the vertical distribution of volcanic gases in the atmosphere. For specific case studies, for example, future Tambora‐like eruption (Fasullo et al, ; Hopcroft et al, ), 3‐D plume models can be used for a more complex and physical representation of the dynamics of umbrella cloud. For studies exploring the effect of future eruption sequences (e.g., Bethke et al, ) the cost of 3‐D plume models is prohibitive but 1‐D models with parameterized injection profiles (Figure S2) can be used, and our study demonstrates that their projections for trends in future plume height and stratospheric injections are comparable to 3‐D models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a consequence, four classes of climate‐volcano feedback governing the climatic impacts of a future eruptions can be identified: Feedback affecting eruption source conditions, such as the impact of deglaciation on the frequency‐magnitude distribution of eruptions (e.g, Cooper et al, ). Feedback related to plume dynamics and SO 2 injection into the atmosphere (Aubry et al, ; this study). Feedback related to volcanic sulfate aerosol chemistry and microphysics (Kremser et al, ; Mills et al, ), which remain unexplored. As an example, would S O 2 ‐sulfate aerosol conversion rate be modulated by the ongoing cooling of the stratosphere? Feedback modulating Earth's radiative balance and climate response to a specified distribution of volcanic aerosols, for example, as a consequence of changes in tropospheric aerosols (Hopcroft et al, ) and ocean stratification (Fasullo et al, ). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections

Aubry

Cerminara

Jellinek

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the most important driver of climate variability. Yet, we still lack a fundamental understanding of how climate change may affect future eruptions. Here, we use an ensemble of simulations by 1‐D and 3‐D volcanic plume models spanning a large range of eruption source and atmospheric conditions to assess changes in the dynamics of future eruptive columns. Our results shed new light on differences between the predictions of 1‐D and 3‐D plume models. Furthermore, both models suggest that as a result of ongoing climate change, for tropical eruptions, (i) higher eruption intensities will be required for plumes to reach the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere and (ii) the height of plumes currently reaching the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere or above will increase. We discuss the implications of these results for the climatic impacts of future eruptions. Our simulations can directly inform climate model experiments on climate‐volcano feedback.

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Section: Implications Of Our Results For Climate-volcano Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Implications Of Our Results For Climate-volcano Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections

Aubry

Cerminara

Jellinek

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Pinatubo, led to disruption of the global hydrological cycle (Trenberth & Dai, 2007); however, some preindustrial eruptions appear to have been orders of magnitude stronger, with accordingly larger destructive potential (Gao et al, 2008;Sigl et al, 2015). This highlights the importance of understanding the potential climatic impacts of future large eruptions (Bethke et al, 2017;Fasullo et al, 2017;Hopcroft et al, 2018;Zanchettin et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope‐Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

Stevenson

Otto‐Bliesner

Brady

et al. 2019

Paleoceanog and Paleoclimatol

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Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the largest natural climate perturbations, but few observational constraints exist on either the climate responses to eruptions or the properties (size, hemispheric aerosol distribution, etc.) of the eruptions themselves. Paleoclimate records are thus important sources of information on past eruptions, often through the measurement of oxygen isotopic ratios (δ18O) in natural archives. However, since many processes affect δ18O, the dynamical interpretation of these records can be quite complex. Here we present results from new, isotope‐enabled members of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, documenting eruption‐induced δ18O variations throughout the climate system. Eruptions create significant perturbations in the δ18O of precipitation and soil moisture in central/eastern North America, via excitation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monsoon Asia and Australia also exhibit strong precipitation and soil δ18O anomalies; in these cases, δ18O may reflect changes to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation phase following eruptions. Salinity and seawater δ18O patterns demonstrate the importance of both local hydrologic shifts and the phasing of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation response, both along the equator and in the subtropics. In all cases, the responses are highly sensitive to eruption latitude, which points to the utility of isotopic records in constraining aerosol distribution patterns associated with past eruptions. This is most effective using precipitation δ18O; all Southern eruptions and the majority (66%) of Northern eruptions can be correctly identified. This work thus serves as a starting point for new, quantitative uses of isotopic records for understanding volcanic impacts on climate.

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Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

et al. 2022

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The impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate are increasingly well understood, but the mirror question of how climate changes affect volcanic systems and processes, which we term “climate-volcano impacts”, remains understudied. Accelerating research on this topic is critical in view of rapid climate change driven by anthropogenic activities. Over the last two decades, we have improved our understanding of how mass distribution on the Earth’s surface, in particular changes in ice and water distribution linked to glacial cycles, affects mantle melting, crustal magmatic processing and eruption rates. New hypotheses on the impacts of climate change on eruption processes have also emerged, including how eruption style and volcanic plume rise are affected by changing surface and atmospheric conditions, and how volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle, radiative forcing and climate impacts are modulated by background climate conditions. Future improvements in past climate reconstructions and current climate observations, volcanic eruption records and volcano monitoring, and numerical models all have a role in advancing our understanding of climate-volcano impacts. Important mechanisms remain to be explored, such as how changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation will affect the volcanic ash life cycle. Fostering a holistic and interdisciplinary approach to climate-volcano impacts is critical to gain a full picture of how ongoing climate changes may affect the environmental and societal impacts of volcanic activity.

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Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

Cited by 19 publications

References 72 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections

Impacts of Climate Change on Volcanic Stratospheric Injections: Comparison of 1‐D and 3‐D Plume Model Projections

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope‐Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

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