Reduction in the 2020 Life Expectancy in Brazil after COVID-19

Abstract

Brazil has the second-largest number of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. We use data on reported deaths to measure and compare the death toll across states from a demographic perspective. We estimate a decline in 2020 life expectancy at birth of 1.94 years, resulting in a mortality level not seen since 2013. The reduction in life expectancy at age 65 was 1.58 years, setting Brazil back to 2009 levels. The decline was larger for males, widening by 2.3% and 5.4% the female-male gap in life expectancy at birth and at age 65, respectively. Among states, Amazonas lost 59.6% of the improvements in life expectancy at birth since 2000. With 2021 COVID-19 deaths at about 43% of the total 2020 figures (as of mid-March) the demographic effect is likely to be even higher this year.

Municipal Brazilian electoral results in 2018-2022 and its association with excess mortality during 2020-2021 COVID-19 pandemic

“…The political tensions and poorly conditions in Brazil have raised concerns about the impact of the pandemic in the number of deaths. This led a number of studies on life expectancy reductions and excess mortality in this country (Castro et al, 2021b;Lima et al, 2021aLima et al, , 2021b. In this context, we extend this discussion and tried to understand the associations of the electoral results in Brazilian municipalities, during the elections of 2018 and 2022, with the excess mortality peaks verified at municipal level during the pandemic periods of 2020 and 2021.…”

“…Through the pandemic Brazilian executive leader showed a consistent pattern of defiance against scientific advice and interventions preventing the spread of COVID-19 (Lima et al, 2021b;Castro et al, 2021a).…”

The life table paradox: has Brazil already overcome it?

“…Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has been imposing economic retraction, aggravating the current situation, and is also expected to have a negative impact on life expectancy. In this regard, Castro et al (2021), based on the death counts by COVID-19 in Brazil in 2020, estimated that life expectancy at birth has declined 1.98 years for males, and 1.82 years for females. Moreover, the authors also estimated the decline in life expectancy in an alternative scenario, assuming that 90% of the deaths by Severe Acute Respiratory Infection without a confirmed diagnosis were caused by COVID-19.…”

“…Along these lines, although population projections are an important demographic tool and a fundamental one for public planning (OLIVEIRA; SILVA; OLIVEIRA, 2019), unforeseen events, particularly the current COVID-19 pandemic, will surely have a negative impact, at least in the short term, in life-expectancy and might affect regions (CASTRO et al, 2021) and subpopulations in different levels. The AIDS epidemic, for example, caused expressive losses in life-expectancy in Africa during the 1990s (SOUZA; RÊGO, 2018).…”