Regional analysis of climate variability at three time scales and its effect on rainfed maize production in the Upper Lerma River Basin, Mexico

Abstract

This study explored climate variability in the Upper Lerma River Basin, State of Mexico, Mexico, at three timescales: annual (1960 to 2010), monthly (1980 to 2010) and seasonal (1980 to 2010). The effects of monthly and seasonal (2003 to 2010) variability on rainfed maize crops were also evaluated. The variables of rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and number of hailstorms were interpolated to generate monthly spatial-temporal series. Over a period of 51 years, the climate of the region shows an accumulative annual increase of 131 mm in rainfall and an increase of 0.8 and 0.74 °C in maximum and minimum temperature, respectively. In conclusion, significant changes in the climate *Manuscript Click here to view linked References 2 variables were found at the three analyzed timescales. Seasonal climate changes were found to coincide with the most vulnerable stage or flowering period of maize; particularly, a shift in the rainfall pattern generates a water deficit that impacts production yield. Hailstorms have increased in frequency, yet their phase shift results in a lesser impact to maize during its most critical stage of development.

Rainfall variability, rainfed agriculture and degree of human marginality in North Guanajuato, Mexico

“…Other research has increased the knowledge of the relationships between climate and the agricultural activity, highlighting that sown and harvested areas and their productivity have considerably declined due to the irregularity of the precipitation conditions, among several other causes (Shakoor et al, 2015;Bussmann et al, 2016;Etienne et al, 2016;Mastachi-Loza et al, 2016). Shakoor et al (2015) explain that these variations have great impact in the agricultural productivity, on food security and on the economy.…”

“…The climate fluctuations that have been occurring in various regions of the earth are also affecting Mexico, and they are cause for serious concern because of their impact on agrifood production. Although crop production is influenced by a range of environmental factors, rainfall variability has the highest effect on crop yields (Etienne et al, 2016;Mastachi-Loza et al, 2016).…”

Sugar Beet Harvests under Modern Climatic Conditions in the Belgorod Region (Southwest Russia)

“…All the trend lines were tested at the 95% confidence level using analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques and the F-test in particular. Additionally, the trends were tested using the Mann-Kendall (e.g., [28]) and Theil-Sen [29] tests at the 95% confidence level, which are generally regarded as more stringent or able to handle outliers better than the F-test.…”

“…Plots of the wave power versus wave number then can be analyzed in order to extract dominant periods from a time series. These spectral peaks can be tested for statistical significance against a red or white noise continuum (e.g., [28]). This depends on whether there is an a priori expectation that low frequency (red) or no particular frequencies (white) should be dominant.…”

Impacts of Climate Change on the Irrigation Districts of the Rio Bravo Basin

“…Time series data play an important role in the assessment and monitoring of various phenomena such as desertification [2], forest fires [3], water resources [4], flooding [5], food security, and climate change [6]. Understanding the magnitude and extent to which systems will be affected by climate change is critical in order to design policies that outline effective adaptation strategies [7].…”