Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps

Huggel, Christian; Kääb, Andreas; Haeberli, Wilfried; Krummenacher, B.

doi:10.5194/nhess-3-647-2003

Cited by 181 publications

(143 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…For this purpose, we use the modified single-flow model (MSF)-a simple GIS-based hydrological flow routing algorithm that calculates the flow direction from one DEM pixel to another according to the steepest downward gradient between each pixel and its eight neighbours (after O'Callaghan 1984), modified to allow flow spreading of up to 45°from the main flow direction (see Huggel et al 2003 for a full description). The maximum downstream travel distance for each GLOF path is determined using an empirically derived worst-case scenario defined by the overall trajectory slope to the source lake, with values as low as 5 % (3°a ngle of reach) considered appropriate for highly mobile sediment-laden events (Huggel et al 2004).…”

Section: Hazard Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk 'hotspots', illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from 'high' to 'very high'. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

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Section: Hazard Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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“…The modified single-flow direction (MSF) model applied here was developed by Huggel et al (2003) for debris flow-type mass movements in high-mountain environments. The debris flow is considered as a downslope moving mass largely controlled by gravitational force and following a given topography.…”

Section: Modified Single-flow Direction Model (Msf)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To gain a more comprehensive perspective, two GIS-based lahar models are applied: the widely used LAHARZ developed by Iverson et al (1998) and a debris-flow model presented by Huggel et al (2003). To this end, a volcano with comprehensive and recent lahar studies and modeling was selected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of ASTER and SRTM DEM data for lahar modeling: A case study on lahars from Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico

Huggel

Schneider

Miranda

et al. 2008

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

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Lahars are among the most serious and far-reaching volcanic hazards. In regions with potential interactions of lahars with populated areas and human structures the assessment of the related hazards is crucial for undertaking appropriate mitigating actions and reduce the associated risks. Modeling of lahars has become an important tool in such assessments, in particular where the geologic record of past events is insufficient. Mass-flow modeling strongly relies on digital terrain data. Availability of digital elevation models (DEMs), however, is often limited and thus an obstacle to lahar modeling. Remote-sensing technology has now opened new perspectives in generating DEMs. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of DEMs derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for lahar modeling on Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico. Two GIS-based models are used for lahar modeling, LAHARZ and a flow-routing-based debris-flow model (modified single-flow direction model, MSF), both predicting areas potentially affected by lahars. Results of the lahar modeling show that both the ASTER and SRTM DEMs are basically suitable for use with LAHARZ and MSF. Flow-path prediction is found to be more reliable with SRTM data, though with a coarser spatial resolution. Errors of the ASTER DEM affecting the prediction of flow paths due to the sensor geometry are associated with deeply incised gorges with north-facing slopes. LAHARZ is more sensitive to errors of the ASTER DEM than the MSF model. Lahar modeling with the ASTER DEM results in a more finely spaced predicted inundation area but does not add any significant information in comparison with the SRTM DEM. Lahars at Popocatépetl are modeled with volumes of 1 × 10 5 to 8 × 10 6 m 3 based on ice-melt scenarios of the glaciers on top of the volcano and data on recent and historical lahar events. As regards recently observed lahars, the travel distance of lahars of corresponding volume modeled with LAHARZ falls short by 2 to 4 km. An important finding is that the travel distance of potential lahar events modeled with LAHARZ may differ by about 2 km when using SRTM or ASTER data because of varying lateral flow-volume distribution. As a consequence, verification and sensitivity analysis of the DEM is fundamental to deriving hazard maps from predicted modeled inundation areas. Because of the global coverage of this type of remote-sensing data, the conclusion that both SRTM and ASTER-derived DEMs are feasible for lahar modeling opens a wide field of application in volcanic-hazards studies.

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“…The first one is the modified single-flowdirection (MSF) model by Huggel et al (2003), which is further developed from the D8 flow direction method (Marks et al, 1984). Model input parameters are the starting cell location, a DTM and an empirical value for the H/L ratio (see below).…”

Section: Lahar Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The flow direction is calculated from each cell to one of its eight neighbours (D8), either adjacent or diagonal, in the direction of the steepest descent. In order to prevent stream width being represented by only one pixel, Huggel et al (2003) implemented a function that enables flow diversion from the steepest flow direction. The more the flow diverts from the steepest descent direction, the higher the corresponding flow resistance.…”

Section: Lahar Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico)

Schneider

Granados

Huggel

et al. 2008

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l.), considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the volcano. Observations of the glacial extent are important for estimations of future hazard scenarios, especially in a rapidly changing tropical glacial environment. In this study, analysis of the glaciers on Iztaccíhuatl shows a dramatic retreat during the last 150 years: the glaciated area in 2007 corresponds to only 4% of the one in 1850 AD and the glaciers are expected to survive no later than the year 2020. Most of the glacial retreat is considered to be related to climate change but in-situ observations suggest also that geo-and hydrothermal heat flow at the summit-crater area can not be ruled out, as emphasized by fumarolic activity documented in a former study. However, development of crater lakes and englacial water reservoirs are supposed to be a more realistic scenario for lahar generation than sudden ice melting by rigorous volcano-ice interaction. Model calculations show that possible outburst floods have to be larger than ∼5×10 5 m 3 or to achieve an H/L ratio (Height/runout Length) of 0.2 and lower in order to reach the populated lower flanks. This threshold volume equals 2.4% melted ice of Iztaccíhuatl's total ice volume in 2007, assuming 40% water and 60% volumetric debris content of a potential lahar. The model sensitivity analysis reveals important effects of the generic type of the Digital Terrain ModelCorrespondence to: D. Schneider (demian.schneider@geo.uzh.ch) (DTM) used on the results. As a consequence, the predicted affected areas can vary significantly. For such hazard zonation, we therefore suggest the use of different types of DTMs and flow models, followed by a careful comparison and interpretation of the results.

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Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps

Cited by 181 publications

References 44 publications

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Evaluation of ASTER and SRTM DEM data for lahar modeling: A case study on lahars from Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico

Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico)

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