Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

Davies, G. Matt; Legg, Colin J.

doi:10.7717/peerj.2649

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Consequently, outputs of fire weather systems benefit from regional interpretation and statistical evaluation against historical fire activity that lead to probabilistic assessments of fire likelihood and threshold values to define fire danger classes [5,11]. In Europe, the CFFWIS has been calibrated to depict distinct fire activity levels [12][13][14][15] and has been used to model fire activity (number of fires, burned area) across various spatiotemporal scales [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] and to assess the likelihood and characteristics of large fires [24][25][26][27][28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Fernandes

2019

Forests

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Forest fire management relies on the fire danger rating to optimize its suite of activities. Limiting fire size is the fire management target whenever minimizing burned area is the primary goal, such as in the Mediterranean Basin. Within the region, wildfire incidence is especially acute in Portugal, a country where fire-influencing anthropogenic and landscape features vary markedly within a relatively small area. This study establishes daily fire weather thresholds associated to transitions to increasingly larger fires for individual Portuguese regions (2001–2011 period), using the national wildfire and Canadian fire weather index (FWI) databases and logistic regression. FWI thresholds variation in relation to population density, topography, land cover, and net primary production (NPP) metrics is examined through regression and cluster analysis. Larger fires occur under increasingly higher fire danger. Resistance to fire spread (the fire-size FWI thresholds) varies regionally following biophysical gradients, and decreases under more complex topography and when NPP and occupation by flammable forest or by shrubland increase. Three main clusters synthesize these relationships and roughly coincide with the western north-central, eastern north-central and southern parts of the country. Quantification of fire-weather relationships can be improved through additional variables and analysis at other spatial scales.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Fernandes

2019

Forests

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“…All details of these products are described in (Field et al, 2015). The FWI components have been widely used to characterize bush fires in many countries (Carvalho et al, 2008, Davies et Legg, 2016, De Groot et al, 2007 and the results are very interesting for saving the environment. Figure1 shows the structure of the fire weather index"s calculation.…”

Section: Environmental Management and Sustainable Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fire Activity and Their Relationship with the Global Fire Weather Index Database Components in Guinea

Barry

Badiane

Sall

et al. 2019

EMSD

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The relationships between the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components and the monthly burned area as well as the number of active fire which has taken from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua/TERRA were investigated in 32 Guinean stations between 2003 and 2013. A statistical analysis based on a multi-linear regression model was used to estimate the skills of FWI components on the predictability of burned area and active fire. This statistical analysis gave performances explaining between 16 to 79% of the variance for the burned areas and between 29 and 82% of the variance for the number of fires (P<0.0001) at lag 0. Respectively 16 to 79 % and 29 to 82 % of the variance of the burned areas and variance for the number of fires (P<0.0001) at lag0 can be explained based on the same statistical analysis. All the combinations used gave significant performances to predict the burned areas and active fire on the monthly timescale in all stations excepted Fria and Yomou where the predictability of the burned areas was not obvious. We obtained a significant correlation between the average over all of the stations of burned areas, active fires and FWI composites with percentage of variance between (75 to 84% and 29 to 77%) for active fires and burned areas at lag0 respectively. While for burned area peak (January), the skill of the predictability remains significant only one month in advance, for the active fires, the model remains skilful 1 to 3 months in advance. Results also showed that active fires are more related to fire behavior indices while the burned areas are related to the fine fuel moisture codes. These outcomes have implications for seasonal forecasting of active fire events and burned areas based on FWI components, as significant predictability is found from 1 to 3 months and one month before respectively.

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“…Empirical modeling has played a vital role in enhancing understanding of controls on fire behavior (Sullivan 2009). To date, research on fire behavior in Calluna-dominated ecosystems has provided models of fire rate of spread (Davies et al 2009), assessment of how fire weather relates to the occurrence of wildfires (Davies and Legg 2016;de Jong et al 2016), and assessment of variation in fire temperatures and fire-induced heating both within the Calluna canopy (e.g., Hobbs and Gimingham 1984), and at and below ground level (Grau-Andrés et al 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and participatory evaluation of fireline intensity and flame property models for managed burns on Calluna-dominated heathlands

et al. 2019

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Background: Prescribed burning plays an important role in the management of many ecosystems and can also be used to mitigate landscape-scale fire risk. Safe and effective application of prescribed fire requires that managers have a robust understanding of potential fire behavior in order to decide on the appropriate tools and tactics for any burning operation. Shrubland ecosystems, including heaths and moors, are known to exhibit intense fire behavior under marginal burning conditions under which fire would not be expected to spread in other vegetation types. This makes developing fire behavior predictions for such systems important. Traditional managed burning is widely used as a tool in Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull-dominated heath and moorland landscapes in northwest Europe, but in some regions, especially the United Kingdom, there is significant debate over fire use. Despite the controversy, there is general agreement on the need to (1) understand relationships between fuel structure and potential fire behavior, and (2) improve burning practice to optimize potential trade-offs between different ecosystem services. Our aim was to provide knowledge to improve management practice by developing models of potential fireline intensity and flame length. We conducted 27 burns in three developmental stages of Calluna with different stand structures and estimated fireline intensity, flame length, flame height, and flame angle. Flame properties were assessed using photographs and visual observation. We evaluated our models using a participatory research approach for which conservation and land managers submitted basic observations on fire behavior and fire weather for their burns. Results: Fireline intensity and flame height increased significantly across age-related Calluna phases. Regression modeling revealed that fireline intensity could be adequately estimated by a combination of fuel height and wind speed, with taller fuels and higher wind speeds related to more intense fires. Predictions were, however, improved by accounting for live fuel moisture content. Flame length and height were modeled as a function of fireline intensity using standard approaches, but adequately performing models for flame angle could not be established. Evaluation data provided by land managers was noisy, but their qualitative assessments of fire behavior and estimates of flame length were significantly correlated with predictions from our models.(Continued on next page)

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Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

Cited by 21 publications

References 46 publications

Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Variation in the Canadian Fire Weather Index Thresholds for Increasingly Larger Fires in Portugal

Fire Activity and Their Relationship with the Global Fire Weather Index Database Components in Guinea

Development and participatory evaluation of fireline intensity and flame property models for managed burns on Calluna-dominated heathlands

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