With the improvement of living standard, people gradually start to pay attention to physical health and figure maintenance, and sports training also gradually becomes a hot issue for people. Sports training can help people develop a healthy body and cultivate a persevering spirit, which can be of great help in all aspects of people’s development, but sports training also has a certain degree of risk, and only a reasonable response can make sports training give maximum value. In this paper, a Markov model is established, a probability transfer matrix is calculated, and this matrix is used to predict the risks arising from sports training since the statistical decade, and the risks of sports training in the next three years are predicted, and some suggestions are made for how to minimize and avoid the risks.