Research on Decision-Making Behavior of Discretionary Lane-Changing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Abstract

In this paper, the decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing is established using cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Through analyzing the vehicles’ dynamic running states, safety spacing calculating approaches for discretionary lane-changing and lane-keeping have been put forward firstly. Then, based on CPT, a lane-changing decision model with accelerating space as its utility is proposed by estimating the difference between actual spacings and the safety spacings for discretionary lane-changing as well as lane-keeping. In order to calculate the utility of discretionary lane-changing, dynamic reference points and a parameter representing driver’s risk preference are introduced into the model. With the real data collected from an urban expressway, the distribution of discretionary lane-changing duration is analyzed, and the model parameters are also calibrated. Furthermore, the applicability of the model is evaluated by comparing with the actual observation and random unity model. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out, that is, assessing the influence degree of each variable on the decision result. The study reveals that the CPT-based model can describe discretionary lane-changing behavior more accurately, which consider drivers’ risk-aversion during decision-making.

Assessment of Significant Factors Affecting Frequent Lane-Changing Related to Road Safety: An Integrated Approach of the AHP–BWM Model

“…For level 2, these main factors were further distributed into fourteen sub-factors and, for level 3, these were further distributed into eight sub-factors. Many researchers considered these specified factors significant in related studies, such as lanechange crashes [42,52], lane-change risks [53], lane-changing simulation [26], discretionary lane-changing [27,54] and road-safety evaluation [44].…”

“…Studying the unpredictability of the lane-changing period, a previous study [27] investigates that the least possible safety layout alters with the dynamic lane-changing period and explains how the accelerating space of the actual vehicle alters with the nearby vehicles' running positions. On this basis, a decision-making model of discretionary lane-changing based on dynamic reference spots was created using cumulative prospect theory (CPT).…”

Lane Choice Behavior at Toll Plaza Under Mixed Traffic Conditions Using TODIM Method: A Case Study

“…In simple words, at the value of θ = 5, the DMs become less sensitive toward losses (as compared to θ = 1), and thus, they tend to choose the desired lanes with the maximum number of lane changes to decrease their delay. Furthermore, the higher value of θ means that the driver gets promoted to change the lanes [ 50 ] and decide the lane by evaluating the criteria (such as lane with the minimum number of vehicles in the queue or with less proportion of heavy vehicles) in the front space (i.e., flare area in the diverging zone of toll plaza). It illustrates the risk-seeking behavior of the DMs when presented with the gain.…”

“…The proposed method was flexible and provided better results than the artificial intelligence-based methods. Long et al [ 50 ] used the cumulative prospect theory for the study of lane-changing behavior. They concluded that the cumulative prospect theory predicts lane changes better due to the presence of risk aversion factor.…”

Analysis and Modeling of Lane-Changing Game Strategy for Autonomous Driving Vehicles

“…Nevertheless, discretionary lanechanging has a certain degree of autonomy and non-necessity. Moreover, sometimes it will be affected by objective conditions and subjective factors to make the decision of giving up lane-changing [18]. As shown in Figure 1, in the discretionary lane-changing scene of one-way double lane, there are FV(Front vehicle) in front of the target lane, PV(Preceding vehicle) in front of the current lane, RV(Rear vehicle) in the rear of the target lane and LV(Lane-changing vehicle) in the current lane, which run along the lane centerline respectively.…”