Resilience of the Eastern African electricity sector to climate driven changes in hydropower generation

Abstract

Notwithstanding current heavy dependence on gas-fired electricity generation in the Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), hydropower is expected to play an essential role in improving electricity access in the region. Expansion planning of electricity infrastructure is critical to support investment and maintaining balanced consumer electricity prices. Variations in water availability due to a changing climate could leave hydro infrastructure stranded or result in underutilization of available resources. In this study, we develop a framework consisting of long-term models for electricity supply and water systems management, to assess the vulnerability of potential expansion plans to the effects of climate change. We find that the most resilient EAPP rollout strategy corresponds to a plan optimised for a slightly wetter climate compared to historical trends. This study demonstrates that failing to climate-proof infrastructure investments can result in significant electricity price fluctuations in selected countries (Uganda & Tanzania) while others, such as Egypt, are less vulnerable.

The Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Uganda—An Integrated Systems Assessment with Water and Energy Implications

“…Lastly, we ranked the combinations based on their climate moisture index (CMI) [54]. The climate moisture index (CMI) is a measure of aridity that combines the effect of rainfall and temperature projections [55]. Since analyzing all the combinations was outside the scope of this study, we selected two climate change projections-wet and dry-as well as a business as usual (baseline) projection.…”

“…The index values varied between −1 and +1, with lower values representing more arid conditions. A CMI value greater than zero indicated that precipitation rates were greater than potential evapotranspiration rates [55,56]. It had to be taken into consideration that the chosen scenarios were cumulatively wet or dry but needed not be in all the years when compared to the baseline.…”

Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning

“…This represents a great barrier to performing effective integrated assessment studies, developing modelling frameworks, and recommending policies for resilience building. While a multitude of studies have been carried out at the basin or global scale in terms of assessing the projected long-term impacts of climate change on hydropower generation potential [13][14][15][16][17][18] and on the discharge of rivers [19], only few have assessed the impact of hydro-climatic extreme events on power supply reliability [20][21][22] and the related impacts on electricity consumption. Moreover, researchers (see [23]) have recently highlighted the necessity of reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches to climate and energy-related assessment, indicating that novel methodologiesincluding the use of earth observation data [24,25]are required.…”

Axial heterostructure nanoarray as all‐solid‐state micro‐supercapacitors

“…As the energy crisis and environmental pollution problems intensify in the world, energy storage devices are receiving more and more attention as sustainable green energy storage devices. Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower are important ways to meet global electric power demand in a clean and green way . As a key equipment for building a global energy internet, energy storage is now receiving more and more attention from countries and regions.…”

“…Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower are important ways to meet global electric power demand in a clean and green way. [1][2][3] As a key equipment for building a global energy internet, energy storage is now receiving more and more attention from countries and regions. As one of the two main types of energy storage devices, supercapacitors (SCs) have many advantages over other storage devices, such as high power density and fast charge/discharge rate capacity.…”