Rethinking the heuristic traps paradigm in avalanche education: Past, present and future

Abstract

This paper will review the emergence and adoption of decision heuristics as a conceptual framework within the avalanche research and education community and demonstrate how this emphasis on the heuristic decision framework has anchored and was critical in redefining the discussion around avalanche accidents. This paradigm has been a critical and meaningful step in recognizing the importance of decision making in avalanche accidents. However, in an attempt to reduce the incidence of fatal accidents, the adoption of these ideas within the wider avalanche community has overlooked some clearly stated limitations within the foundational work of the heuristic decision frame. With respect to the concept of heuristic traps in conventional avalanche education, the concepts are poorly operationalized to the extent that they are vague about what exactly they describe. The result is that as presently framed, they are of negligible value to avalanche education that seeks its basis on the best available information. We end with a discussion, and a call to action to the avalanche research community, of how we could move towards resolution of these weaknesses and add value to prior work on human factor research. Our aim is not to disparage the seminal, paradigm shifting work by McCammon, but rather draw attention to how it has been operationalized and how the industry needs to move beyond this paradigm to see further gains in our understanding of avalanche fatalities.

Liking and perceived safety across judgments of distinct instances of a category of activity

“…Our research found no evidence that sunny versus cloudy skies influenced liking or perceived safety. These findings are applicable for the ongoing evaluation of the heuristic traps conceptual framework and its relevance for avalanche risk management strategies, tools and education (see Johnson et al 2020). We recognize, however, that the task of judging avalanche risk may have focused participants' attention on risk to a greater degree than it would be in a natural situation.…”

“…Nonetheless, those failed manipulations are relevant for the field of avalanche research and education. For the past two decades, a focus on erroneous decision heuristics (referred to as heuristic traps) has dominated examinations into the decision processes that result in avalanche accidents and fatalities (Johnson et al 2020). One of the heuristic traps specified in that conceptual framework is the scarcity heuristic.…”

Confidence in complex risk judgments: the roles of uncertainty, experience, and affect

“…Unfortunately, the experience of avalanche terrain appears to lead many backcountry skiers to make such mistaken assumptions. Avalanche terrain is a decision environment in which poor decisions are infrequently marked by valid feedback (Ebert, 2019;Johnson et al, 2020;Zweifel & Haegeli, 2014). Valid feedback is essential for the experiential learning and calibration process (Fischer & Budescu, 2005;Hogarth et al, 2015;Sanchez & Dunning, 2018.…”

From pigeon holes to descending spirals: a paradigm of physiology, cognitive performance and behaviour in extreme environments

“…Investigating the relationship between physiology and behaviour is difficult. Moreover, our behaviour in extreme environments results not just from our acute brain state, but a complex interplay of heuristics, informed by environmental and social cues (Johnson et al, 2020).…”

“…Investigating the relationship between physiology and behaviour is difficult. Moreover, our behaviour in extreme environments results not just from our acute brain state, but a complex interplay of heuristics, informed by environmental and social cues (Johnson, 2020). The paradigm is a first step at attempting to propose a potential pathway, or mechanism, responsible for these observations in an otherwise largely descriptive body of literature.…”