Rice yield response to climate and price policy in high-latitude regions of China

Abstract

Climate change has renewed interest in the production capacity of agriculture. Few researchers paid attention to price policy and heteroscedasticity in yield model. We incorporate rice price policy into the yield model at the expected price using a Tobit procedure and take Kalman filter theory to explore useful information, and then estimate the rice yield response to climate and rice price using a spatial autoregressive combined model in high-latitude regions of China from 1992 to 2018. Meanwhile, we apply two different Breusch-Pagan tests to examine heteroscedasticity. Our results suggest that spatial correlation of the error term is a more critical source of heteroscedasticity and cannot be completely solved by only allowing spatially autocorrelated errors due to possible technology diffusion effects. The results also show that rice price support policy is useful for constructing rice expected prices, and the price elasticities of rice and corn on rice yield are 0.194 and -0.097, respectively. Among climate variables, the total growing degree days in the growing season has positive effects, and monthly accumulated growing degree days also matter, especially in June. Precipitation in July and August has a significant effect with an inverse U shape. Projections of future climate change suggest that rice yield will mainly increase, ranging from 0.095% to 1.769%, but the rate of increase in yield will slow down in the higher-rate global warming. This study shows how price policy could be incorporated into yield response model and highlights the importance of climate factors and crop price policy for rice yield.

Agricultural Supply Chain Financing Strategies under the Impact of Risk Attitudes

“…The uncertainty of output in the agricultural product supply chain is a risk that is difficult to grasp in agricultural production decision making. Natural disasters such as climate change will lead to a reduction in agricultural production, which is the main factor affecting the agricultural product market [13][14][15]. Assouto et al also confirmed that weather-induced uncertainty in agricultural output increases market price volatility [16].…”

A Novel Approach to Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in Agriculture: An Application to the Lower Bhavani Irrigation Project, India

“…Such a threshold was not reached till AI reached 0.5, after which the yield will decline, in the case of LBIP. Yu et al (2022) also describes the increase in yield with increase in growing degree days (GDD) until a threshold GDD is reached, after which the yield decreases. An increase in rice yield with increase in temperature, as projected by the RCM RegCM3 was also reported in Cauvery river basin, of which Bhavani river basin is a part of (Geethalakshmi et al, 2011).…”

The impact of Chinese rice support policies on rice acreages

“…Some research studying the effectiveness of the Chinese grain support policies focused on agricultural subsidy programs (e.g., Yi et al, 2015;Su et al, 2021;Fan et al, 2023). More recent studies focused on assessing the impacts of the price support policy in China on price enhancement and price stabilization (Li et al, 2022;Lyu & Li, 2019) and on price variability and welfare (Wang & Wei, 2021), as well as how rice yield responses to climate and rice price policy in China (Yu et al, 2022). As far as we are aware, there is not much research on evaluating the effectiveness of the minimum procurement price policy on the acreage change, which also considers the effect of rice price increases in the same period, except for Su et al (2021).…”