Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security

Mohtadi, Hamid; Murshid, Antu Panini

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01260.x

Cited by 37 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…As far as the latter is concerned, a consensus has developed that all 'intentional human interference' leading to contamination, politically motivated or not, can be considered as 'food terrorism' (Mohtadi and Murshid 2009). Indeed, the WHO defines food terrorism in broad terms: 'an act or threat of deliberate contamination of food for human consumption with biological, chemical and physical agents or radionuclear materials for the purpose of causing injury or death to civilian populations and/or disrupting social, economic or political stability' (WHO 2008).…”

Section: Risk Food Security and Food Terrorismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dodgy dumplings and lethal liver: risk, food terrorism, and Sino–Japanese relations

O’Shea

2015

The Pacific Review

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The nature of food risk in Japan has undergone a qualitative change in recent years. This article synthesises insights from psychology, economics, and political science into an interdisciplinary risk approach to show how international relations impact consumer decisions in Japan by outlining how food risks are constructed and framed within existing narrative frameworks. To this end, the article employs two case studies: the gyoza incident in 2008, when poisoned dumplings imported from China caused ten people to fall ill, and contaminated beef incident in 2011, in which five people died and dozens more were hospitalised after consuming raw beef tainted due to industrial negligence. These cases are analysed in the context of Japan's low rate of food self-sufficiency, deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and the 'China threat theory', and perceptions of food safety. The article shows how, despite suffering recent major domestic food contamination incidents and lethal domestic food terrorism, Japanese food is perceived as safe and healthy whereas imported food, and especially Chinese food, is perceived as dangerous and unhealthy. This is exemplified in the domestic response to the two cases: the gyoza incident led to a national outcry, mass hysteria, and calls for a ban on Chinese food imports. Conversely, the raw beef contamination incident À the deadliest case of food contamination in Japan since the 1990s À saw a far more mixed response, as industry, media, and consumers called for the government to allow individuals to take on self-responsibility to mediate their own risks regarding (domestically produced Japanese) food. The article concludes by pointing out that, while behavioural sciences can tell us important things about risk, the political and international context must also be considered.

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Section: Risk Food Security and Food Terrorismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dodgy dumplings and lethal liver: risk, food terrorism, and Sino–Japanese relations

O’Shea

2015

The Pacific Review

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“…Liquid eggs are ingredients in a wide variety of foods, and contaminated liquid eggs could lead to significant morbidity and mortality. See Mohtadi and Murshid (2009) for background information about and the importance of this application area. For this application, we assume the leader manages the production facility and is trying to balance two objectives: (1) maximize productivity and (2) minimize vulnerability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A leader–follower partially observed, multiobjective Markov game

2015

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The intent of this research is to generate a set of non-dominated finite-memory policies from which one of two agents (the leader) can select a most preferred policy to control a dynamic system that is also affected by the control decisions of the other agent (the follower). The problem is described by an infinite horizon total discounted reward, partially observed Markov game (POMG). For each candidate finite-memory leader policy, we assume the follower, fully aware of the leader policy, determines a (perfect memory) policy that optimizes the follower's (scalar) criterion. The leader-follower assumption allows the POMG to be transformed into a specially structured, partially observed Markov decision process that we use to determine the follower's best response policy for a given leader policy. We then approximate the follower's policy by a finite-memory policy. Each agent's policy assumes that the agent knows its current and recent state values, its recent actions, and the current and recent possibly inaccurate observations of the other agent's state. For each leader/follower policy pair, we determine the values of the leader's criteria. We use a multiobjective genetic algorithm to create the next generation of leader policies based on the values of the leader criteria for each leader/follower policy pair in the current generation. Based on this information for the final generation of policies, we determine the set of non-dominated leader policies. We present an example that illustrates how these results can be used to support a manager of a liquid egg production process (the leader) in selecting a sequence of actions to maximize expected process productivity while mitigating the risk due to an attacker (the follower) who seeks to contaminate the process with a chemical or biological toxin.

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“…The occurrence probabilities of different types of attacks are also key factors influencing the level of risk. Researches developed on studying the occurrence probabilities of specific types of attacks, such as arson and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attacks . These kinds of studies could help defenders decide the priorities of defensive strategies against different tactics of attacks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

Zhuang

Shen

2016

Risk Analysis

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In recent years, various types of terrorist attacks occurred, causing worldwide catastrophes. According to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), among all attack tactics, bombing attacks happened most frequently, followed by armed assaults. In this article, a model for analyzing and forecasting the conditional probability of bombing attacks (CPBAs) based on time-series methods is developed. In addition, intervention analysis is used to analyze the sudden increase in the time-series process. The results show that the CPBA increased dramatically at the end of 2011. During that time, the CPBA increased by 16.0% in a two-month period to reach the peak value, but still stays 9.0% greater than the predicted level after the temporary effect gradually decays. By contrast, no significant fluctuation can be found in the conditional probability process of armed assault. It can be inferred that some social unrest, such as America's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and Iraq, could have led to the increase of the CPBA in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan. The integrated time-series and intervention model is used to forecast the monthly CPBA in 2014 and through 2064. The average relative error compared with the real data in 2014 is 3.5%. The model is also applied to the total number of attacks recorded by the GTD between 2004 and 2014.

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Risk Analysis of Chemical, Biological, or Radionuclear Threats: Implications for Food Security

Cited by 37 publications

References 19 publications

Dodgy dumplings and lethal liver: risk, food terrorism, and Sino–Japanese relations

Dodgy dumplings and lethal liver: risk, food terrorism, and Sino–Japanese relations

A leader–follower partially observed, multiobjective Markov game

Dynamic Forecasting Conditional Probability of Bombing Attacks Based on Time‐Series and Intervention Analysis

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