Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis (FTA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applicable to shield TBM tunnels

Hyun, Ki Chang; Min, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Hangseok; Park, Jeong-Jun; Lee, In Mo

doi:10.1016/j.tust.2015.04.007

Cited by 198 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…First, we considered these expert judgments using Equations (11) to (14) to calculate the estimation of states probability distribution of 15 root nodes based on 20 expert judgments. Second, the sample data of the root nodes located in different states were used to obtain the aforementioned result calculated by Equations (15) to (20). Finally, we obtained the TFN of 15 nodes located in 5 states.…”

Section: Root Node Probability Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks

Sun

Liu

Chu

et al. 2018

Quality & Reliability Eng

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Excessive structural deformation or collapse can lead to heavy casualties and substantial property loss. This paper presents a novel integrated risk assessment method based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks integrated with historical data, expert investigations, probability distribution calculations, discrepancy analysis, sensitivity analysis, and decision‐making. A new expert investigation is proposed with small probability intervals, expert weights, confidence index, etc. After gaining expert judgment by expert investigation, Chauvenet's criterion is first introduced in a discrepancy analysis to eliminate outlier data from the expert judgment and obtain a more reliable value. The t distribution and its confidence interval are also adopted to determine the characteristic value of the survey data as a triangular fuzzy number. A conditional probability table of the model is integrated with historical data and prior knowledge through the weight index. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify the critical factors by changing the probability distribution of each factor and observing the related changes in the risk event. The proposed method ensures the accuracy and scientific rigor of the assessment and the diagnosis of a tunnel accident. This method is successfully applied to assess the collapse probability of the Yu Liao Tunnel.

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Section: Root Node Probability Calculationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks

Sun

Liu

Chu

et al. 2018

Quality & Reliability Eng

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“…Fuzzy AHP was used for estimating the group preferences, and neural networks were employed for mapping the suppliers to suitable classes. Hyun et al (2015) used free tree analysis and AHP for carrying out the risk analysis of undesirable events taking place during tunnelling with the application of a shield tunnel tedious machine method. Azarnivand et al (2015) applied fuzzy AHP in water, and environmental management in the Iranian context.…”

Section: Some Of the Applications Of The Ahpmentioning

confidence: 99%

To investigate the critical risk criteria of business continuity management by using analytical hierarchy process

Mishra¹,

Raut

Narkhede

et al. 2018

IJMCP

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Business continuity management (BCM) is a management process which is practised to counteract the negative impacts of possible threats to the continuity of organisational activities. This paper provides the criteria that contribute to the risk amplification for the disruption of business. Over the last two decades, global concerns have emerged due to natural disasters, and human-made disasters, which are also responsible for the business interruption. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical risk criteria of business continuity management/process and their potential impact on the businesses as well as their supply chain. Six criteria and 28 sub-criteria were selected from the literature review, and views of experts' (academicians, and industry practitioners), and an AHP methodology has been adopted to rank the same. A criteria namely 'organisational and management risk (OMR)' and a sub-criteria namely 'management policies failure' were found to be the most significant. These research findings are intended to help the decision and policy makers in understanding the significance of critical risk criteria and for the formulation of effective policies and strategies for their elimination.

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“…A set of strata inclinations of the rock stratum was measured near the Longmen mountain tunnel, and the data are given as follows (unit: ∘ ): 78, 78, 78, 78.5, 79.5, 79.5, 80, 80.5, 80.5, 80.5, 81, 81. 5 Figure 1.…”

Section: Probabilities Of the Evaluation Indices Based On Geologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risk assessment of water inrush with geological flaws normally use neural network method, AHP, FAHP, GIS, fuzzy mathematical method, attribute mathematical method, and so on [5,6]. Risk analysis provides a procedure, which should take into account the uncertainties [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty Analysis on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

Hao

Rong

et al. 2016

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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An improved attribute recognition method is reviewed and discussed to evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels. Due to the complex geology and hydrogeology, the methodology discusses the uncertainties related to the evaluation index and attribute measure. The uncertainties can be described by probability distributions. The values of evaluation index and attribute measure were employed through random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulations and an attribute measure belt was chosen instead of the linearity attribute measure function. Considering the uncertainties of evaluation index and attribute measure, the probability distributions of four risk grades are calculated using random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulation. According to the probability distribution, the risk level can be analyzed under different confidence coefficients. The method improvement is more accurate and feasible compared with the results derived from the attribute recognition model. Finally, the improved attribute recognition method was applied and verified in Longmenshan tunnel in China.

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Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis (FTA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applicable to shield TBM tunnels

Cited by 198 publications

References 3 publications

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks

To investigate the critical risk criteria of business continuity management by using analytical hierarchy process

Uncertainty Analysis on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

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