Risk and uncertainty in power system planning

Merrill, H.M.; Wood, Allen J.

doi:10.1016/0142-0615(91)90030-y

Cited by 64 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…In [8], it is proposed an alternative methodology based upon a with-without planning analysis to compute long term prices to remunerate distribution networks taking into account the effect of avoided or added costs of the distribution generation resources. A multistage fuzzy multicriteria planning algorithm must be performed twice in order to evaluate the impact of DG at given risk level, modeled through the fuzzy robustness index [9]. In planning problems, robustness reflects the degree of confidence or adequacy of a given plan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Notice of Violation of IEEE Publication Principles: A Benders Decomposition and Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Distribution Networks Remuneration Considering DG

Khodr

Vale

Ramos

2009

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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In this paper, the remuneration of fixed costs of distribution networks with distributed generation is evaluated by means of an efficient planning strategy that includes the concept of fuzzy robustness of a given solution plan. As a key contribution, it is included the possibility of choice among different conductor sizes in order to assess the deep costs by overcapacity introduced by distributed generation. A single-stage multicriteria nonlinear problem is stated using three different criteria: investment cost in lines and transformers or distributed generators, power losses cost and unserved energy cost. Pareto or efficient plans are identified using the -Constraint/Weighting method and solved by Benders decomposition algorithm.Uncertainty associated to load demand and power injections of distributed resources are integrated using a fuzzy power flow in order to obtain the robustness indexes of each Pareto solution. The annualized fixed charge rate (AFCR) associated to new and existing distribution lines and transformers or distributed generators is assessed through a with-without analysis permitting to compute the annual avoided charge rate (AACR) in order to send incentives or charges to distributed generation promoters by the avoided or added investment costs on the system. The model is programmed in GAMS mathematical modeling language. The effectiveness of the proposal is demonstrated through a real 201-node distribution network.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Notice of Violation of IEEE Publication Principles: A Benders Decomposition and Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Distribution Networks Remuneration Considering DG

Khodr

Vale

Ramos

2009

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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“…In fact, such a planning decision is considerably complicated as it is not only involving a large number of social, economic, political and technical factors and their interactions, but also coupled with complex temporal and spatial variabilities (Lin and Huang 2009b). Moreover, global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) may pose challenges to the fundamental structure of electric power systems (Hidy and Spencer 1994;Wise et al 2007); meanwhile, the vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, raises the need to identify sustainable adaptation measures (Merrill and Wood 1991;de Lucena et al 2010). Therefore, effective planning for electric power system under various uncertainties and dynamic complexities is much desired.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An interval mixed-integer non-linear programming model to support regional electric power systems planning with CO2 capture and storage under uncertainty

2012

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Background: Electric generating capacity expansion has been always an essential way to handle the electricity shortage, meanwhile, greenhouse-gas (GHG) emission, especially CO 2 , from electric power systems becomes crucial considerations in recent years for the related planners. Therefore, effective approach to dealing with the tradeoff between capacity expansion and carbon emission reduction is much desired. Results: In this study, an interval mixed-integer non-linear programming (IMINLP) model was developed to assist regional electric power systems planning under uncertainty. CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies had been introduced to the IMINLP model to help reduce carbon emission. The developed IMINLP model could be disassembled into a number of ILP models, then two-step method (TSM) was used to obtain the optimal solutions. A case study was provided for demonstrating applicability of the developed method. Conclusions:The results indicated that the developed model was capable of providing alternative decisions based on scenario analysis for electricity planning with consideration of CCS technologies. The IMINLP model could provide an effective linkage between carbon sequestration and electric generating capacity expansion with the aim of minimizing system costs.

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“…There have been several papers arguing for risk analysis as an alternative to probabilistic methods, especially for power system planning [8][9][10]. A risk-based criterion requires the modeling of risk attitude in order to find a ranking of operating alternatives.…”

Section: Modeling Risk Attitudementioning

confidence: 99%

Decision support for network operation in an open power market

Warland

Holen

Solem

et al. 2007

Int Trans Elec Energy Syst

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SUMMARYThe Norwegian system operator plans to change from (N-1) to a more flexible cost-based security criterion. The approach is illustrated using a simple example and then compared with alternative decision paradigms. The comparison shows how different paradigms may change ranking of operating alternatives and that the new cost-based criterion still tends to favor alternatives close to (N-1), provided application of a penalty factor giving additional and significant weight on interruption costs.

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Risk and uncertainty in power system planning

Cited by 64 publications

References 1 publication

Notice of Violation of IEEE Publication Principles: A Benders Decomposition and Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Distribution Networks Remuneration Considering DG

Notice of Violation of IEEE Publication Principles: A Benders Decomposition and Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach for Distribution Networks Remuneration Considering DG

An interval mixed-integer non-linear programming model to support regional electric power systems planning with CO2 capture and storage under uncertainty

Decision support for network operation in an open power market

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