Risk factors of geriatrics index of comorbidity and MDCT findings for predicting mortality in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia due to superior mesenteric artery thromboembolism

Abstract

Objectives: To identify risk factors of geriatrics index of comorbidity (GIC) and multidetector CT (MDCT) findings for predicting mortality in patients with acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) due to superior mesenteric artery (SMA) thromboembolism. Methods: 33 patients with AMI due to SMA thromboembolism underwent abdominal MDCT and angiography. Patients’ comorbidities and MDCT findings of ischemic bowel/mesenteric injuries, regions of SMA involved by thromboembolism, and degrees of SMA stenosis were retrospectively reviewed. The comorbidities were classified into 1–4 levels according to GIC. The association of MDCT signs and GIC classification with mortality were analyzed. Diagnostic performances of risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. Results: Eighteen patients (54.5%) died during hospitalization or follow-up, including one patient with class 1, two patients with class 2, eight patients with class 3, and seven patients with class 4 according to GIC. Three risk factors significantly associated with mortality were identified, including pneumatosis and/or portomesenteric venous gas (PPMVG) (p = 0.017), four regions of SMA involved by thromboembolism (region I + II + III + IV) (p = 0.036), and class 3 + 4 of comorbidities (p = 0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of PPMVG, region I + II + III + IV, class 3 + 4 of comorbidities, and the three risk factors combined for diagnosing mortality were 33.3 and 100%, 27.8 and 100%, 83.3 and 73.3%, and 88.9 and 73.3%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of the three risk factors combined (0.88) and class 3 + 4 of comorbidities (0.78) were larger than that of PPMVG (0.67) and region I + II + III + IV (0.64). The mortality rate rose from 15.4% in patients without risk factor to 66.7%, 100%, and 100% in patients with one, two, and three factors, respectively. Conclusion: Three risk factors for mortality were identified in patients with AMI due to SMA thromboembolism, including PPMVG and four regions of SMA involved by thromboembolism on MDCT images, and class 3 + 4 of comorbidities. Close monitoring of these risk factors could possibly lower the mortality. Advances in knowledge: Risk factors based on GIC and MDCT findings may be used to predict mortality in patients with AMI. Close monitoring of these risk factors could possibly lower the mortality.

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“…Sixty-one studies addressed the short-term mortality of occlusive arterial AMI 6 22 25 27 31–35 38 39 42 48 49 59 62 63 66 94 95 97 113–153. Meta-analysis showed an overall mortality of 51.8% (95% CI 46.3 to 57.3) (online supplemental figure 2).…”

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