Risks of Forest Fires in the Lake Baikal Basin: Statistical Assessment and Mapping

Abstract

The article presents the results of a study of forest fire risks in the territory of the lake Baikal basin according to statistical materials of Russia and Mongolia for the period 1998-2018 using geoinformation technology. As a technological solution for storing, processing and calculating operations with statistical data, the creation of a vector storage of statistical data of the ArcGIS software environment is proposed. The repository is compiled by means of overlay operations with layers of territorial divisions for which state statistical accounting of forest fires is carried out, as well as layers of vegetation, settlements and the road network, a fragment of the repository is presented. The assessment of forest burnability for the study period in the territories of neighboring countries was carried out, a comparative spatial and temporal analysis of the frequency and area of fires, their scale was performed, the main fire hazard factors and causes of fires were considered. A method of geoinformation mapping of forest fires based on statistical materials has been developed. The integral risk was assessed in the context of forest areas based on the calculation of specific indicators of physical, economic and social risks. A map of the integral risk of forest fires in the lake basin has been compiled. Baikal is located within the boundaries of forestry enterprises, an analysis of their distribution in the studied territory is carried out.