Accurate determination of binding free energy is pivotal for the study of many
biological processes and has been applied in a number of theoretical investigations to
compare the affinity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants toward
the host cell. Diversity of these variants challenges the development of effective
general therapies, their transmissibility relying either on an increased affinity toward
their dedicated human receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), or on
escaping the immune response. Now that robust structural data are available, we have
determined with utmost accuracy the standard binding free energy of the receptor-binding
domain to the most widespread variants, namely, Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron BA.2, as
well as the wild type (WT) in complex either with ACE2 or with antibodies, namely, S2E12
and H11-D4, using a rigorous theoretical framework that combines molecular dynamics and
potential-of-mean-force calculations. Our results show that an appropriate starting
structure is crucial to ensure appropriate reproduction of the binding affinity,
allowing the variants to be compared. They also emphasize the necessity to apply the
relevant methodology, bereft of any shortcut, to account for all the contributions to
the standard binding free energy. Our estimates of the binding affinities support the
view that while the Alpha and Beta variants lean on an increased affinity toward the
host cell, the Delta and Omicron BA.2 variants choose immune escape. Moreover, the S2E12
antibody, already known to be active against the WT (Starr et al., 2021; Mlcochova et
al., 2021), proved to be equally effective against the Delta variant. In stark contrast,
H11-D4 retains a low affinity toward the WT compared to that of ACE2 for the latter.
Assuming robust structural information, the methodology employed herein successfully
addresses the challenging protein–protein binding problem in the context of
coronavirus disease 2019 while offering promising perspectives for predictive studies of
ever-emerging variants.