Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran

Abstract

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Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semiarid basin in Iran

“…The basin has been affected by rapid expansion and intensification of agricultural areas in the last decades, similar to other areas in the Urmia Lake basin (Shirmohammadi et al, ). Over a 23‐year period (1993–2015), 20.7% of the study area has changed to irrigated agriculture and rainfed cropland, mostly at the cost of natural vegetation (Shirmohammadi et al, ).…”

“…Over a 23‐year period (1993–2015), 20.7% of the study area has changed to irrigated agriculture and rainfed cropland, mostly at the cost of natural vegetation (Shirmohammadi et al, ). During this period, the orchard area has increased more than three times during the period 1993 to 2015, whereas the area covered by natural vegetation decreased from 68% in 1993 to 47% in 2015 (Shirmohammadi et al, ).…”

“…This study is divided in three parts: land use change detection and simulation, collection of climate change data, and hydrological modeling using the InVEST model. For the land use change detection and modeling, we used the data from Shirmohammadi et al () that used LANDSAT satellite images (United States Geological Survey, ) and the Dyna‐CLUE land use change model (Verburg & Overmars, ) to detect land use changes and modeling future scenarios, respectively. The climate data used in this study were obtained from the East Azerbaijan Water Authority and Natural Resources Research Center and also Iranian Climatological Institutions.…”

“…The scenarios are based on observed trends in land use change over the past 15 years and include possible reductions in irrigation water withdrawal and improvements to irrigation efficiency as potential measures to halt the drying up of Urmia Lake. We used past, current, and simulated future land use maps as documented by Shirmohammadi et al (). Three land use scenarios were considered: a reference scenario, following the observed land use trends between 1993 and 2015, and two scenarios with different improvements to irrigation efficiency (Table ; details in Shirmohammadi et al, ).…”

“…We used past, current, and simulated future land use maps as documented by Shirmohammadi et al (). Three land use scenarios were considered: a reference scenario, following the observed land use trends between 1993 and 2015, and two scenarios with different improvements to irrigation efficiency (Table ; details in Shirmohammadi et al, ).…”