Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Zeng, F. J.; Ma, Mingguo; Di, Dong-Rui; Shi, Weiyu

doi:10.3390/w12082201

Cited by 45 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…Several methods have been developed to distinguish between the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, including numerical models based on physical processes (Zeng et al, 2020). However, the parameters required for these hydrological models are scarce in Central Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

Duan

Chen

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrology

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

Duan

Chen

et al. 2021

Journal of Hydrology

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“…However, many studies use data of a single point to represent the entire study area, leading to a high degree of uncertainty in hydrological models. In contrast, although the Budyko framework needs large-scale space and time for its establishment to avoid deviations, it can obtain the required information more easily and has a clear physical meaning [14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relative Contribution of the Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff in the Choshui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Chen

Huang

Yeh

2021

Land

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Climate factors and human activities are the leading causes of changes in the hydrological cycle. In addition to being an important part of the hydrological cycle, runoff is also an important indicator for assessing the amount of available water. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the reasons that have caused changes in runoff. In this study, the causes of runoff changes in the alluvial fan of the Choshui River from 1980–2018 are explored. Two simple methods, including a decomposition method based on the Budyko structure and a method based on climate elasticity, for which the necessary data are easy to obtain, are used to quantify the impact of climate factors and human activities on runoff changes. The results show that the runoff in the long term shows a significant transition point in 2003, where climate factors have contributed more than 90% of the change, while the influence of human activities on the changes in runoff appears to be relatively small. Moreover, the Budyko method and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) show that the vegetation cover has decreased. In addition to providing a simple method to assess the causes of changes in runoff, this study also analyzes the causes of changes in the runoff of the alluvial fan of the Choshui River to provide a reference for water resource policy and land use management.

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“…However, the model structure, input and parameters can cause great uncertainties in the results [8][9][10]. In particular, the impact of human activity on runoff is difficult to be accurately described by hydrological models [11,12]. The statistical analysis method is generally used to compare the natural and measured values of runoff during the period of human activity disturbance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Changes of Runoff Regime in the Yellow River Basin from 1956 to 2017

Yang

Liu

Han

et al. 2021

Water

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The Yellow River is one of the major rivers with severe runoff declines in China, but there are significant differences in runoff changes in the upper and lower reaches of the basin and among different tributaries. However, the characteristic of runoff change and its spatial heterogeneity are not well understood in the whole basin. In this paper, 48 hydrological stations located in the mainstream and major tributaries were selected, and the meteorological and runoff data from 1956 to 2017 were collected. The multi-year and intra-year changes in runoff were analyzed, and then the attribution of climate change and human activity to runoff change was quantified by the climate elasticity coefficients. The results showed that: (1) in the past 60 years, the runoff of the Yellow River showed a serious decrease trend of −8.25 mm/10a. Moreover, most tributaries decreased significantly in runoff with a rate of −1.42 mm/10a to −28.99 mm/10a; (2) for the whole basin, the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff changes was 13% and 87%, respectively. Moreover, the contribution of the two factors varied considerably in different tributaries. Finally, focusing on different runoff regime and socioeconomic characteristics, this study provided corresponding water resources adaptive management suggestions.

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Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Cited by 45 publications

References 105 publications

An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

An integrated assessment of runoff dynamics in the Amu Darya River Basin: Confronting climate change and multiple human activities, 1960–2017

Quantifying the Relative Contribution of the Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff in the Choshui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan

Temporal and Spatial Changes of Runoff Regime in the Yellow River Basin from 1956 to 2017

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