SimCOVID: Open-Source Simulation Programs for the COVID-19 Outbreak

Abdulrahman, Ismael

doi:10.1101/2020.04.13.20063354

Cited by 13 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…A fractional model for intercity network is considered in [4]. A mathematical model of COVID-19 and its simulations are considered in [5]. A model of COVID-19 using fractional derivative has been considered in [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the present paper, we formulate a new mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and isolation. Initially, we provide a brief discussion on the model formulation and provide relevant mathematical results. Then, we consider the fractal-fractional derivative in Atangana-Baleanu sense, and we also generalize the model. The generalized model is used to obtain its stability results. We show that the model is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 < 1. Further, we consider the real cases reported in China since January 11 till April 9, 2020. The reported cases have been used for obtaining the real parameters and the basic reproduction number for the given period, R 0 ≈ 6.6361. The data of reported cases versus model for classical and fractal-factional order are presented. We show that the fractal-fractional order model provides the best fitting to the reported cases. The fractional mathematical model is solved by a novel numerical technique based on Newton approach, which is useful and reliable. A brief discussion on the graphical results using the novel numerical procedures are shown. Some key parameters that show significance in the disease elimination from the society are explored.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantined and isolation

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This compartment is dedicated to those people who are infectious but they do not infect others for a period of time namely incubation or latent period. Other works (see [Abd20] for example) consider an additional compartment at the end of the SIR or of the SEIR model to distinguish between recovered and death cases:…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Health systems only try to mitigate its consequences to avoid complications and fatal outcomes. This disease showed a great capacity of contagion and high fatality rates (see updated reports in [WM2]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A control approach to the Covid-19 disease using a SEIHRD dynamical model

Pazos

Felicioni²

2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The recent worldwide epidemic of Covid-19 disease, for which there is no vaccine or medications to prevent or cure it, led to the adoption of public health measures by governments and populations in most of the affected countries to avoid the contagion and its spread. These measures are known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and their implementation clearly produces social unrest as well as greatly affects the economy. Frequently, NPIs are implemented with an intensity quantified in an ad hoc manner. Control theory offers a worthwhile tool for determining the optimal intensity of the NPIs in order to avoid the collapse of the healthcare system while keeping them as low as possible, yielding in a policymakers concrete guidance. We propose here the use of a simple proportional controller that is robust to large parametric uncertainties in the model used.

show abstract

“…in Genova, Switzerland (Chowell, Ammon, Hengartner, & Hyman, 2006). We note that a multistage model based on SEIR model was introduced by Abdulrahman (Abdulrahman, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two stages logistic model was used for modeling 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto (Canada) (Hsieh & Cheng, 2006;Wang, Wu, & Yang, 2012), and the multistage logistic model was introduced by Chowell et (Chowell, Tariq, & Hyman, 2019) was used for modeling Spanish flu of 1918 in Genova, Switzerland (Chowell, Ammon, Hengartner, & Hyman, 2006). We note that a multistage model based on SEIR model was introduced by Abdulrahman (Abdulrahman, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%