Simulasi Model Sistem Dinamik Ketersediaan Bawang Putih  (Allium sativum, L.) di Provinsi Bali

Dudin, Muhammad Dika Ima; Wiranatha, Agung Suryawan; Sadyasmara, Cokorda Anom Bayu

doi:10.24843/jrma.2020.v08.i01.p12

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…Peningkatan luas areal lebih meningkatkan produksi bawang putih dibandingkan dengan peningkatan produktivitas. Hal ini sejalan dengan penelitian Kiloes dan Sopha (2014) dan Dudin et al (2020).…”

Section: Gambar 4 Perbandingan Hasil Skenariounclassified

Model Penawaran Dan Permintaan Bawang Putih Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Dinamik

Adila,

Kilat Adhi,

Nurmalina

2023

Forum Agribisnis

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There is a reasonably high gap between the ability to supply garlic and demand that requires the government to carry out a garlic import policy to meet domestic needs. The high dependency on imported garlic supplies has caused garlic imports to increase. This study aims to analyze the supply and demand model for garlic and formulate policy recommendations regarding the supply and demand for Indonesian garlic using system dynamics model approach. The model in this study is simulated for the next 12 years (2022-2033). Based on the model simulation results, in the base conditions (before the scenario was implemented), the behavior pattern of garlic availability was goal-seeking. At the same time, demand had an exponential growth behavior pattern, and supply had an increasing trend. In 2033, it is estimated that the availability of garlic will experience a deficit, and garlic production and total farmers' income will continue to decline. Therefore, policies are needed to increase garlic farmers' availability, production, and total income in Indonesia through several policy scenarios. The policy scenario with the best results is a combination of an increase in area, productivity, and the realization of mandatory planting by importers because it can produce the highest availability and production of garlic compared to other scenarios. The most sensitive variable to the availability of Indonesian garlic is mandatory planting. Each increase in the realization of mandatory planting by importers by 10 percent can increase the availability of Indonesian garlic by 4.7 percent.

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Section: Gambar 4 Perbandingan Hasil Skenariounclassified

Model Penawaran Dan Permintaan Bawang Putih Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Dinamik

Adila,

Kilat Adhi,

Nurmalina

2023

Forum Agribisnis

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“…Produksi daging sapi merupakan daging sapi yang didapat dari hasil pemotongan sapi di daerah Sumatera Barat. Subsistem produksi merupakan proses transformasi input menjadi output (Dudin et al, 2020). Daerah yang paling banyak menyumbang dalam produksi daging sapi adalah Kota Padang, Kabupaten Agam, Kota Bukittinggi, dan Kabupaten Pesisir Selatan.…”

Section: Materi Dan Metodeunclassified

Analisis Ketersediaan Daging Sapi Potong Di Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Model Sistem Dinamis

Fadhillah,

Nurhayati,

Fitrimawati

2023

JWP

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memformulasikan model sistem dinamis ketersediaan daging sapi di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dan mensimulasikan ketersediaan daging sapi di Provinsi Sumatera Barat pada 10 Tahun kedepan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu metode deskstudy, dimana data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder berupa data statistik dari Badan Pusat Statistik, Dinas Peternakan Provinsi Sumatera Barat, dan Direktoral Jendral Peternakan dan Kesehatan Hewan. Analisis data dilakukan dengan 4 tahapan yaitu merancang diagram causal loop (sebab-akibat), memformulasikan model sistem dinamis, melakukan uji validasi terhadap model yang telah dibuat, dan melakukan simulasi ketersediaan daging sapi melalui formulasi model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa : a) formulasi model ketersediaan daging sapi di Sumatera Barat terdiri atas 2 subsistem dan telah mampu mempresentasikan sistem ketersediaan daging sapi potong secara nyata. Pertama, subsistem penyediaan daging sapi potong yang memiliki tingkat akurasi sebesar 0.0%. Subsistem ini mencakup produksi daging sapi, populasi sapi potong, pemotongan sapi, kelahiran sapi, kematian sapi, penambahan sapi potong, pengeluaran sapi potong, penambahan daging sapi, dan pengeluaran daging sapi. Kedua, subsistem kebutuhan daging sapi yang memiliki tingkat akurasi sebesar 0.01%. Subsistem kebutuhan ini mencakup jumlah penduduk dan konsumsi daging sapi (Konsumsi rumah tangga, konsumsi industri olahan, dan konsumsi luar provinsi). b) simulasi pada model sistem dinamis ketersediaan daging sapi potong untuk 10 Tahun kedepan dilakukan dengan melakukan simulasi pada tiga skenario. Dimana, hasil dari skenario 3 menunjukkan bahwa ketersediaan daging sapi di Sumatera Barat sudah mulai tercukupi dari tahun 2028-2031. Tercukupinya kebutuhan daging sapi di Sumatera Barat ini tercukupi apabila dilakukannya empat kebijakan yang terdiri dari : peningkatan kelahiran sebesar 0,2% per tahun, menekan kematian sapi sebesar 0,01% per tahun , meningkatkan pemotongan sebesar 0,3% per tahun, dan menambahkan populasi sapi sebanyak 40.000 ekor per tahunnya. Kata Kunci: Daging Sapi, Ketersediaan, Model Sistem Dinamis, Simulasi, Suppy-Demand

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“…The simulation aims to assist in making the right decisions in a short time without having to spend a lot of money [6]. The dynamical systems method is used to study problems based on a system point of view, where the elements of the system will interact with each other in a feedback relationship to produce a definite behaviour [7]. System dynamics is a method of problem analysis where time is one of the important factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate change on cayenne pepper availability in Sleman District, Yogyakarta with dynamic system modelling

Puspitaningrum,

Reka,

Widayanto

2024

IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci.

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The availability of cayenne pepper in Sleman District is influenced by cayenne pepper production factors and demand of consumers. Climate change greatly affects the demand and supply of cayenne pepper. The value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in the dynamic system model is 5.18%. The simulation of Cayenne Pepper availability scenarios in the Sleman District that was made scenarios by rule of the Government to increase of planting area by 20 ha per year. The other scenarios were changing a temperature increase 1 degree Celsius and increase of 2 degrees Celsius. The result of the research showed that first scenario made the supply of cayenne pepper decrease 15 %/year. The second scenario made the supply of cayenne pepper will be decrease up to 30 %/year in 2024-2030. It means that the temperature change can influence significantly with the supply of cayenne pepper in Sleman District. Moreover, the supply has not been fulfil to the very high demand by consumers of households, Industries and Horeca (Hotel, restaurant and catering) in this district.

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Simulasi Model Sistem Dinamik Ketersediaan Bawang Putih (Allium sativum, L.) di Provinsi Bali

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Model Penawaran Dan Permintaan Bawang Putih Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Dinamik

Model Penawaran Dan Permintaan Bawang Putih Indonesia: Pendekatan Sistem Dinamik

Analisis Ketersediaan Daging Sapi Potong Di Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Model Sistem Dinamis

Impact of climate change on cayenne pepper availability in Sleman District, Yogyakarta with dynamic system modelling

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