Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using
            <scp>CMIP5</scp>
            Climate Projections

Bachelet, Dominique; Sheehan, Tim; Ferschweiler, K.; Abatzoglou, John T.

doi:10.1002/9781119028116.ch17

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Our work shows that changes to environmental variables in the RCP 8.5 scenario result in larger wildfire potential than RCP 4.5. Other work has demonstrated that RCP 4.5 could lead to episodically larger wildfires in the future as that pathway has conditions conducive to fuel build up (Bachelet et al, 2016). Our methods do not account for feedbacks like this.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area

et al. 2021

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area

et al. 2021

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“…, , Seidl et al. , Abatzoglou and Brown ; Bachelet et al., in press). Simulations of climate, fire, and vegetation dynamics using the MC2 DGVM showed a substantial increase in fire frequency and a loss of subalpine plant communities (Sheehan et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Mid‐21st‐century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Riley

Loehman

2016

Ecosphere

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Abstract. Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

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“…One reason is that most C cycle processes related to LUCC were simplified in large‐scale C modeling assessments (Arneth et al, 2017) because DGVMs typically operate at coarse spatial resolutions with limited representation of LUCC. For example, the Community Land Model (Lindsay et al, 2014) and the Ecosystem Demography Model (Hurtt et al, 2002) have spatial resolutions of 0.5–1.0 degree for global simulations although the MC2 model has been used at 4‐km resolution for western United States (Bachelet, Sheehan, Ferschweiler, & Abatzoglou, 2016). In some cases, other sources of LUCC C effects are adopted/combined in DGVM simulations (Schimel et al, 2016; Sitch et al, 2015) in order to reflect LUCC effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the Community Land Model (Lindsay et al, 2014) and the Ecosystem Demography Model (Hurtt et al, 2002) have spatial resolutions of 0.5-1.0 degree for global simulations although the MC2 model has been used at 4-km resolution for western United States (Bachelet, Sheehan, Ferschweiler, & Abatzoglou, 2016). In some cases, other sources of LUCC C effects are adopted/combined in DGVM simulations (Schimel et al, 2016;Sitch et al, 2015) in order to reflect LUCC effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Liu

Sleeter

Zhu

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

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Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections

Cited by 4 publications

References 54 publications

Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area

Past Variance and Future Projections of the Environmental Conditions Driving Western U.S. Summertime Wildfire Burn Area

Mid‐21st‐century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

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