Simulation of forest‐based carbon balances for Germany: a contribution to the‘carbon debt’ debate

Schweinle, Jörg; Köthke, Margret; Englert, Hermann; Dieter, Matthias

doi:10.1002/wene.260

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The results of our simulations provide a realistic picture of the impact of harvesting on net carbon sinks projections up to 2050 for Slovenian forests. However, some other studies reported a distinct turnaround of carbon sequestration after 2050 [51,52], which could also happen in our simulations, if a longer period was considered. In addition to harvesting, changes in carbon stocks in living biomass may also be affected by other processes, such as the degree of tree mortality and changes in forest areas, which were not covered in our study and should be addressed in future studies.…”

Section: Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 49%

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

Jevšenak

Klopčić

Mali

2020

Forests

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With the advent of global warming, forests are becoming an increasingly important carbon sink that can mitigate the negative effects of climate change. An understanding of the carbon dynamics of forests is, therefore, crucial to implement appropriate forest management strategies and to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement with respect to international reporting schemes. One of the most frequently used models for simulating the dynamics of carbon stocks in forests is the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3). We applied this model in our study to evaluate the effects of harvesting on the carbon sink dynamics in Slovenian forests. Five harvesting scenarios were defined: (1) business as usual (BAU), (2) harvesting in line with current forest management plans (PLAN), (3) more frequent natural hazards (HAZ), (4) high harvest (HH) and (5) low harvest (LH). The simulated forest carbon dynamics revealed important differences between the harvesting scenarios. Relative to the base year of 2014, by 2050 the carbon stock in above-ground biomass is projected to increase by 28.4% (LH), 19% (BAU), 10% (PLAN), 6.5% (HAZ) and 1.2% (HH). Slovenian forests can be expected to be a carbon sink until harvesting exceeds approximately 9 million m3 annually, which is close to the calculated total annual volume increase. Our results are also important in terms of Forest Reference Levels (FRL), which will take place in European Union (EU) member states in the period 2021–2025. For Slovenia, the FRL was set to −3270.2 Gg CO2 eq/year, meaning that the total timber harvested should not exceed 6 million m3 annually.

show abstract

Section: Sources Of Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 49%

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

Jevšenak

Klopčić

Mali

2020

Forests

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Such cross-sectoral relationships highlight the necessity of consequential approaches (“how are the global environmental burdens affected by the production and use of the product?” [ 13 ]) in addition to the attributive approach (“what share of the global environmental burdens belongs to a product?” [ 13 ]) for assessing climate impacts of forest systems [ 10 ]. Many studies apply consequential approaches to assess whether intensive or extensive forest management is more beneficial for mitigating climate change [ 7 , 15 , 38 ], though the results are controversial.The main two reasons in favor of intensive forestry are that (1) an increase in wood utilization can offset decreased carbon stocks in the forest by storing more carbon in harvested wood products (HWP) and (2) by substituting more -intensive materials and services. [ 17 , 18 , 43 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[13]) for assessing climate impacts of forest systems [10]. Many studies apply consequential approaches to assess whether intensive or extensive forest management is more beneficial for mitigating climate change [7,15,38], though the results are controversial.The main two reasons in favor of intensive forestry are that (1) an increase in wood utilization can offset decreased carbon stocks in the forest by storing more carbon in harvested wood products (HWP) and ( 2) by substituting more CO 2 -intensive materials and services. [17,18,43].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany

Buschbeck

Pauliuk

2022

Carbon Balance Manage

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Forestry plays a major role in climate change mitigation. However, which intensity of logging is best suited for that task remains controversial. We contribute to the debate by quantitatively analyzing three different forest management scenarios in Germany—a baseline scenario which represents a continuation of current forest management practice as well as an intensive and an extensive logging scenario. We assess whether increased carbon storage in wood products and substitution of other emission-intensive materials can offset reduced carbon stocks in the forest due to increased harvesting. For that, we calculate annual required displacement factors (RDF)—a dimensionless quantity that indicates the minimal displacement factor (DF) so that intensive forestry outperforms extensive forestry from a climate perspective. Results If the intensive forest management scenario is included in the comparison, the RDF starts off with relatively high values (1 to 1.5) but declines over time and eventually even reaches negative values. Comparing the extensive scenario to a baseline yields RDF values between 0.1 and 0.9 with a slightly increasing trend. Compared to RDFs, expected future DFs are too low to favour the intensive forestry scenario and too high to favour the extensive forestry scenario, during the first 25 years of the modeling period. However, towards the end of the modeling period, the relationship between DFs and RDF is turned around in both comparisons. In the comparison between intensive and extensive forest management RDF values are very similar to future DF trajectories. Conclusion RDFs are a useful tool for comparing annual climate impacts of forest growth scenarios and can be used to benchmark material and energy substitution effects of wood. Our results indicate that the baseline scenario reflects an effective compromise between carbon stocks in the forest and carbon displacement by wood use. For a longer modeling period, however, this might not be the case. Which of the alternative scenarios would be best suited for climate change mitigation is heavily dependent on future DF trajectory. Hence, our findings highlight the necessity of robust projections of forest dynamics and industry decarbonization pathways.

show abstract

“…Therefore, substitution impacts cannot be observed, but only estimated based on assumptions related to, for example, the compared functionalities, that is, which non‐wood alternatives that wood‐based products can be assumed to be substituted and to what extent. However, the rationale behind such assumptions often remains elusive or no explicit assumptions have been made (Jonsson et al., 2021; Kalliokoski et al., 2020; Knauf et al., 2015; Schweinle et al., 2018). Conventionally, wood products are assumed to substitute non‐wood products exclusively and at a ratio of 1:1, and apart from the assessment of functional equivalence for comparative LCA, there are no systematic procedures to judge which product may substitute for another (Hurmekoski et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Substitution impacts of wood‐based textile fibers: Influence of market assumptions

Hurmekoski

Suuronen

Ahlvik

et al. 2022

J of Industrial Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Wood products may help to avoid fossil emissions when they substitute for more fossilintensive products. However, the estimates of avoided fossil emissions attributed to wood use tend to be based on incomplete market assumptions. Wood products are assumed to fully substitute for non-wood products, yet substitution rarely occurs 1:1 and wood products can also substitute for each other. This study outlines a systematic procedure grounded on economic theory for approximating the existence and rate of substitution between wood and non-wood products, and calculates the marginal avoided fossil emissions with both conventional assumptions and more realistic assumptions based on an expert survey, taking the case of textile markets. The results suggest that regenerated cellulosic fibers (RCFs) are not perfect substitutes for synthetic fibers, meaning that part of an additional RCF supply will replace established textile fibers while part of it merely adds to the overall textile supply, and thereby aggregate fossil emissions. Moreover, in the long term, RCFs are more likely to substitute for synthetics than for cotton, and in the short term, non-viscose RCFs are more likely to substitute for contemporary viscose than for polyester or cotton. In the specified case, the alteration of market assumptions leads to quadrupling the marginal substitution impacts of wood use. Besides the relatively high fossil intensity of contemporary viscose, this is partly explained by increased absolute aggregate fossil emissions. Producing a more realistic account of substitution processes in the forest products markets is central in directing investments that ensure a net reduction in fossil emissions.

show abstract

Simulation of forest‐based carbon balances for Germany: a contribution to the‘carbon debt’ debate

Cited by 11 publications

References 35 publications

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

The Effect of Harvesting on National Forest Carbon Sinks up to 2050 Simulated by the CBM-CFS3 Model: A Case Study from Slovenia

Required displacement factors for evaluating and comparing climate impacts of intensive and extensive forestry in Germany

Substitution impacts of wood‐based textile fibers: Influence of market assumptions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About