The objective of the presented study is to analyze the competitiveness of the German forest industry sector against the background of the international timber markets. The analysis is conducted based on global bilateral trade data in monetary terms. Timber commodities are grouped according to twelve commodity classes; each class is clearly attributed to one of the three processing levels raw wood, semi-finished and finished wood products. After an introductory description of the structure and development of the global timber market, two result-oriented competitiveness indicators have been applied: the revealed comparative advantage (RCA), which indicates whether a country is specialized in a specific sector-the RCA analysis has been conducted by means of the two consecutive indices Balassa index (BI) and Aquino index (AI)-and in addition the constant market share (CMS) analysis, which disaggregates the overall export growth of a country into four different effects: (1) the world growth effect, (2) the commodity-composition effect, (3) the market-distribution effect and (4) a residual, which usually is interpreted as the competitiveness effect. Depending on the chosen indicator, results are given for 21 and 25 leading countries (RCA and CMS, respectively). The highest BI values are shown by Russia for raw wood (10.4), by Finland for semi finished wood products (11.3) and by Poland for finished wood products (4.7). The AI shows that countries which are specialized in timber commodity exports mostly are significant timber importers, as well. This is an indication of their integration in an intra-industry trade. Germany only has a BI value somewhat greater than 1 for finished wood products. This can be seen as an indication of merely an average competitiveness position in global timber markets. The CMS analysis delivers two key results: most of the leading timber exporters in absolute terms show only low export growth rates and vice versa. Furthermore, a strong positive relationship can be identified between a country's timber export growth rate and its competitiveness effect. Most of the Eastern European and many Asian and Latin American countries show this pattern, as they have high growth rates and high positive competitiveness effects. Germany's export growth can be attributed much more to the overall world growth in timber markets than to its forest industry capacity. Hence, a stagnation of world growth would have crucial effects on the German forest industry sector.

& Key message The application of the ITOC model allows the estimation of available biomass potentials from forests on the basis of National Forest Inventory data. The adaptation of the model to country-specific situations gives the possibility to further enhance the model calculations. & Context With the rising demand for energy from renewable sources, up-to-date information about the available amount of biomass on a sustainable basis coming from forests became of interest to a wide group of stakeholders. The complexity of answering the question about amounts of biomass potentials from forests thereby increases from the regional to the European level. & Aims The described ITOC model aims at providing a tool to develop a comparable data basis for the actual biomass potentials for consumption. & Methods The ITOC model uses a harmonized net annual increment from the National Forest Inventories as a default value for the potential harvestable volume of timber. The model then calculates the total theoretical potential of biomass resources from forests. By accounting for harvesting restrictions and losses, the theoretical potential of biomass resources from forests is reduced and the actual biomass potentials for consumption estimated. & Results The results from ITOC model calculations account for the difference between the amounts of wood measured in the forests and the actual biomass potentials which might be available for consumption under the model assumptions.

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future carbon balance of wood use in Germany combining a national forest inventory data-driven forest growth model with information about German harvested wood products markets and taking into account material and energy substitution effects. In a scenario analysis, we assess impacts of different forest management options, change of market share of harvested wood products as well as changes of the national energy mix. Additionally, the model settings and assumptions that predominantly determine the results are identified and discussed. The simulation results show that only a radical change of forest management in Germany would cause net carbon emissions. The continuation of current forest management or a higher share of high yield tree species as well as a change of market shares of wood and wood products would result in a net carbon sequestration in German forest and harvested wood products carbon pools. Considering substitution effects, even the net carbon emissions of a radically changed forest management would be over compensated and the carbon balance of all other scenarios would become even more positive. Looking at the most decisive factors regarding our simulation results, the initial treatment of the forest carbon pool, the starting year for the simulations and the present forest structure are most crucial for further accumulated net carbon pool changes.

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In the year 2011 the German Federal Government adopted its Forest Strategy 2020. This strategy includes 60 goal formulations in nine action fields. The present paper analyses to which extent the results of the German National Forest Inventory (BWI) prove achievements of those of the 60 goals, which are quantitatively verifiable. The results reveal that forestry in Germany in general meets its own standard of multi-functionality, securing that forests fulfil manifold demands of the society. However, while the objectives of nature and climate protection are on track for being achieved, the prospects for objectives related to employment, income and value added are less encouraging. Total forest area and forest growth are increasing, forests currently constitute a carbon sink, and the naturalness and structural diversity of forests are growing. Also the high but sustainable use of the wood fosters currently the income of and employment in forest enterprises and timber industries. But the ongoing regeneration of forest stands predominantly with deciduous tree species is expected to cause a long-term lack of faster growing and higher valuated coniferous stands. The resulting lack of highly demanded softwood of small or medium-sized diameters will raise problems to timber industries. Moreover, shrinking timber production due to a decreasing share of coniferous forests has adverse consequences not only from the economic point of view. It will also decrease the climate-friendly use of wood products, in particular due to the foregone substitution effect. The results of the study also show that BWI is an indispensable source of information for forest politics and forest science particularly in view of its long-term time series. The preservations of time series must be kept in mind whenever changes in the methods of BWI are considered.