Some results of research on new crisis predictors

Abstract

The article provides some assumptions and hypotheses that have arisen as a result of a critical analysis of a new generation of crisis predictors. Three assumptions/hypotheses are submitted to the reader’s court: 1) on the possible impact of the negative spread of the yield on US Treasury bonds on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve; 2) on the effect of the central banks fulfilling the financial stability function on their monetary policy; 3) on the existence of objective reasons for Russia’s later entry into the global crisis of 2007—2009. The latter circumstance, along with the fact that some of the Russian recessions have significant internal causes, indicates the need for forming domestic crisis predictors. The assumptions and hypotheses cited in the article are debatable.

Inflation targeting: From “constrained discretion” to singularity

“…Further directions of research can focus at measurement of central banks' dynamic positioning at the axis "rules versus discretion" on the basis of modeling (see, for instance, Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy et al (2013)) or along the lines of linguistic analysis undertaken in Japan byKeida and Tokeda (2019).15 ThoughDanilov et al (2020) specify that a kind of implicit capture of monetary regulators by the interests of financial markets might have already taken place in the US.…”