Space-time analysis of human brucellosis considering environmental factors in Iran

Ahmadkhani, Mohsen; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar

doi:10.12980/apjtd.7.2017d6-353

Cited by 28 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…After adjusting for the province and cities clustering effects, covariates height (p-value <0.0001), temperature (p-value <0.0001) and precipitation (p-value = 0.0006) significantly affect brucellosis cases rates. These results were in concordance with results of other studies [27].…”

Section: Applicationsupporting

confidence: 94%

Multilevel Zero-inflated Censored Beta Regression Modeling for Proportions and Rate Data with Extra-zeros

Tapak

Hamidi

Sadeghifar

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Objectives Zero-inflated proportion or rate data nested in clusters due to the sampling structure can be found in many disciplines. Sometimes, the rate response may not be observed for some study units because of some limitations (false negative) like failure in recording data and the zeros are observed instead of the actual value of the rate/proportions (low incidence). In this study, we proposed a multilevel zero-inflated censored Beta regression model that can address zero-inflation rate data with low incidence.Methods We assumed that the random effects are independent and normally distributed. The performance of the proposed approach was evaluated by application on a three level real data set and a simulation study. We applied the proposed model to analyze brucellosis diagnosis rate data and investigate the effects of climatic and geographical position. For comparison, we also applied the standard zero-inflated censored Beta regression model that does not account for correlation.Results Results showed the proposed model performed better than zero-inflated censored Beta based on AIC criterion. Height (p-value <0.0001), temperature (p-value <0.0001) and precipitation (p-value = 0.0006) significantly affected brucellosis rates. While, precipitation in ZICBETA model was not statistically significant (p-value =0.385). Simulation study also showed that the estimations obtained by maximum likelihood approach had reasonable in terms of mean square error.Conclusions The results showed that the proposed method can capture the correlations in the real data set and yields accurate parameter estimates.

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Section: Applicationsupporting

confidence: 94%

Multilevel Zero-inflated Censored Beta Regression Modeling for Proportions and Rate Data with Extra-zeros

Tapak

Hamidi

Sadeghifar

et al. 2019

Preprint

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“…Districts where the disease was absent were found to be much drier and the districts where it is present have greater access to rivers/irrigation water. It is reported that climate variables are associated with the disease prevalence and distribution (Li et al 2013;Ahmadkhani & Alesheikh 2017) but further investigation is required to confirm this in Pakistani context, using finer-level climate data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…It is reported that climate variables are associated with the disease prevalence and distribution (Li et al . ; Ahmadkhani & Alesheikh ) but further investigation is required to confirm this in Pakistani context, using finer‐level climate data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bovine brucellosis in Pakistan; an analysis of engagement with risk factors in smallholder farmer settings

Arif

Thomson

Hernández‐Jover

et al. 2019

Veterinary Medicine & Sci

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A cross‐sectional study was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of bovine brucellosis in smallholder farms in seven regions in Pakistan, identify herd and individual level risk factors for seropositivity and assess the level of engagement of farmers with risk factors. In total, 1063 cattle and buffalo belonging to 420 herds in seven districts were sampled. The Rose Bengal test (RBT), indirect enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (I‐ELISA) and competitive enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (C‐ELISA) were used for the serological diagnosis of bovine brucellosis on all the serum samples. The associations between herd‐and animal‐level risk factors and seropositivity were investigated using logistic regression analyses. In addition, herd management practice scores, created to quantify the number of management practices undertaken that pose a risk for Brucella transmission, were calculated and compared between seropositive and negative herds within each district. Overall herd and animal prevalence were estimated to be 16.2% (95% CI, 13–20%) and 8.7% (95% CI, 7.2–10.6%), respectively, across all districts sampled. Herds with a history of last trimester abortion were found to be more likely to be positive than herds without such history (OR = 2.06, 95% CI, 1.09–3.89), providing validation of our findings and identifying that clinical disease is occurring in this region. It was also identified that herds with five to eight buffalo (OR = 3.80, 95% CI, 1.69–8.49), and those with more than eight buffalo (OR = 3.81, 95% CI, 1.51–9.58) were more likely to be positive for Brucella than those with less (one to two and three to four) buffaloes present in the herd. The presence of other domestic animals at the farm and purchasing animals in last year were found to have no association with seropositivity. The findings of this study support the need for the development of targeted intervention strategies specific to the disease status of each district.

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“…It is an infectious disease which can be acute or chronic. It is caused by brucella, which is a natural epidemic disease [5]. Brucellosis is globally distributed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2007-2016

Liang

Zhao

et al. 2020

BMC Infect Dis

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Background: Despite the considerable efforts made to address the issue of brucellosis worldwide, its prevalence in dairy products continues to be difficult to estimate and represents a key public health issue around the world today. The aim of the present study was to better understand the epidemiology of this disease in mainland China. We set out to investigate the yearly spatial distribution and possible hotspots of the disease. Methods: Human brucellosis data from mainland China between 2007 and 2016 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. A geographic information system ArcGIS10.3 (ESRI, Redlands) was used to identify potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China during the study period. These distributions were evaluated using three-dimensional trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analyse. A gravity-center was used to analyse the migration track of human brucellosis. Results: A total of 399,578 cases of human brucellosis were reported during the 10-year study period. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in China demonstrates clear seasonality. Spring and summer are the peak seasons, while May is the peak month for brucellosis. Three-dimensional trend analysis suggests that brucellosis is on the rise from south to north, and that the epidemic situation in northern China is more severe. Between 2007 and 2016, the overall migration distance of the brucellosis incidence gravity-center was 906.43 km, and the direction was southwest. However, the overall gravity center of brucellosis was still in the northern part of China. In the global autocorrelation analysis, brucellosis in China demonstrated a non-random distribution between 2013 and 2014, with spatial autocorrelation (Z > 1.96, P < 0.05) and a clustering trend, while no clustering trend was found from 2007 to 2012 or from 2015 to 2016. In the local autocorrelation analysis, a Low-Low cluster phenomenon was found in the south of China in 2013 and 2014. Conclusion: Human brucellosis remains a widespread challenge, particularly in northern China. The hotspots highlight potential high-risk areas which may require special plans and resources for monitoring and controlling the disease.

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Space-time analysis of human brucellosis considering environmental factors in Iran

Cited by 28 publications

References 22 publications

Multilevel Zero-inflated Censored Beta Regression Modeling for Proportions and Rate Data with Extra-zeros

Multilevel Zero-inflated Censored Beta Regression Modeling for Proportions and Rate Data with Extra-zeros

Bovine brucellosis in Pakistan; an analysis of engagement with risk factors in smallholder farmer settings

The spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2007-2016

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