Spatial distribution modelling reveals climatically suitable areas for bumblebees in undersampled parts of the Iberian Peninsula

Penado, Andreia; Rebelo, Hugo; Goulson, Dave

doi:10.1111/icad.12190

Cited by 29 publications

(27 citation statements)

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“…occurrence records were filtered, reducing the dataset to single points within a specified Euclidean distance) to decrease the possibility for sampling bias and autocorrelation 48 . Two heterogeneity classes with minimum distance set to 10 km, and maximum to 15 km were used (classification type set to “Natural breaks”) 40 to maximize the number of spatially independent points 48 . The rarefied dataset holds 10,628 records for 31 North American bumblebee species, sampled from 1960 to 1990, inclusively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These environmental characteristics are ecologically significant for bumblebees 50 , and measure different aspects of climate to minimize multicollinearity, a recommended approach for variable selection 51 . These variables have been applied to SDMs of bumblebee species in the past 39 , 40 , 50 . Further, annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are among the most representative of climate data since they are not derived from other variables 48 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Sirois-Delisle

Kerr

2018

Sci Rep

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Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species’ dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of “hotspots” where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Sirois-Delisle

Kerr

2018

Sci Rep

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“…MaxEnt mines the relationship between a set of sample locations and the corresponding grid cell of climatic layers based on climatological resemblance and then assumes the probability of the presence of the species in other cells of the study area [40][41]. MaxEnt software (Version 3.4.1), which is now open source and was downloaded from the website of the American Museum of Natural History (http:// biod iversit y i n for mat ics.a m n h.org /open _ sou rce/ maxent/), has excellent predictive performance for plants [42].…”

Section: Modeling Methods and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Study of the Geographical Distribution of <i>Actinidia arguta</i> in China

Wang¹,

ChunXian²,

Huang³

et al. 2020

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The interaction between plants and climate is reflected in the adaptation of plants to climatic factors and the feedback of plants to climate [1-2]. Climate is the dominant factor affecting plant distribution. Climate is expressed in the fact that heat is the source of energy for plant life activities, and water is the basic component of plants and can affect plant physiological activities. Climate change will have a great impact on the growth, geographical distribution, diversity and richness of plants. In global climate change, the most important ecological factors influencing the plant-ecosystem are

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“…Kumar et al, (2014) used MaxEnt to predict the invasion potential of the exotic pest Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Coccoidea: Pseudococcidae) in India. Penado et al, (2016) used MaxEnt to identify climatically suitable areas for bumblebees in under-sampled parts of the Iberian Peninsula. López-Martínez et al, (2016) studied the environmental suitability for Agrilus auroguttatus Schaeffer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in Mexico using MaxEnt.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Peer Review #1 of "Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model (v0.1)"

2019

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Background. Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring and control of this pest and citrus HLB. Methods. In this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. Results. Our results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUC mean = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83×10 4 km 2. The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71×10 4 km 2 , with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were Min Temperature of Coldest Month, Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter, Precipitation of Warmest Quarter, Max Temperature of Warmest Month, and Temperature Seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri. Discussion. The predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the Min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.

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Spatial distribution modelling reveals climatically suitable areas for bumblebees in undersampled parts of the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract: The Iberian Peninsula supports a high diversity of bumblebees, with 38 species all of which are 7 at or near the south western edge of their range. We might expect them to be threatened by

Cited by 29 publications

References 54 publications

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate

A Simulation Study of the Geographical Distribution of <i>Actinidia arguta</i> in China

Peer Review #1 of "Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri (Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model (v0.1)"

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