Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Air Pollution, Climate Change, and Total Mortality in 120 Cities of China, 2012–2013

Abstract

China has had a rapid increase in its economy over the past three decades. However, the economic boom came at a certain cost of depleting air quality. In the study, we aimed to examine the burden of air pollution and its association with climatic factors and health outcomes using data from Chinese national and city-level air quality and public health surveillance systems. City-level daily air pollution index (API, a sum weighted index of SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, and Ozone) in 120 cities in 2012 and 2013, and its association with climate factors were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and panel fixed models. City-level ecological association between annual average API and total mortality were examined using univariate and partial correlation analysis. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by taking the consideration of time-lag effect between exposures and outcomes. The results show that among the 120 cities, annual average API significantly increased from 2012 to 2013 (65.05 vs. 75.99, p < 0.0001). The highest average API was in winter, and the lowest in summer. A significantly spatial clustering of elevated API was observed, with the highest API in northwest China in 2012 and with the highest in east China in 2013. In 2012, 5 (4%) of the 120 cities had ≥60 days with API >100 (defined as “slightly polluted”), however, it increased to 21 cities (18%) that experienced API >100 for ≥60 days in 2013. Furthermore, 16 cities (13%) in 2012 and 35 (29%) in 2013 experienced a maximum API >300 (defined as “severely polluted”). API was negatively and significantly correlated with heat index, precipitation, and sunshine hours, but positively with air pressure. Cities with higher API concentrations had significantly higher total mortality rates than those with lower API. About a 4–7% of the variation in total mortality could be explained by the difference in API across the nation. In conclusion, the study highlights an increased trend of air pollution from 2012 to 2013 in China. The magnitude of air pollution varied by seasons and regions and correlated with climatic factors and total mortality across the country.

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