Spatially Inhomogeneous Trends of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific for 1977–2010

Park, Doo‐Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, Hyeong‐Seog

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00386.1

Cited by 26 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…However, some recent studies found that there are subareas in which the intensity trends are consistent among the best-track data and therefore statistically more confident (e.g. Park et al 2011Park et al , 2013. Kim et al (2010) showed that to transform the raw intensity records into regular gridded data is informative for illustrating the spatially distinct trends.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent changes in oceanic and atmospheric environments over the western North Pacific (WNP) are likely to imperil coastal countries in East Asia with TCs, by inference from previous research (e.g. Park et al 2011Park et al , 2013. Park et al (2013) demonstrated that spatially distinct changes in dynamic environments have affected the corresponding pattern of changes in TC intensity in recent decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Park et al 2011Park et al , 2013. Park et al (2013) demonstrated that spatially distinct changes in dynamic environments have affected the corresponding pattern of changes in TC intensity in recent decades. As shown in figure 1, for the period 1979-2010, the sea surface temperature (SST) has warmed notably in the western Pacific, accompanied by weak cooling in the tropical central and eastern Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Park¹,

Ho²,

Kim³

2014

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The threat of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) to East Asia has increased in recent decades. Integrated analyses of five available TC data sets for the period 1977-2010 revealed that the growing threat of TCs primarily results from the significant shift that the spatial positions of the maximum intensity of TCs moved closer to East Asian coastlines from Vietnam to Japan. This shift incurs a robust increase in landfall intensity over east China, Korea and Japan. In contrast, an increase of TC genesis frequency over the northern part of the South China Sea leads to a reduction in the maximum TC intensity before landfall, because of their short lifetime; thus, there are no clear tendencies in the landfall intensity across Vietnam, south China and Taiwan. All changes are related to the strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation, closely linked with the recent manifestation that the warming trend of sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific is much higher than that in the central to eastern Pacific.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Park¹,

Ho²,

Kim³

2014

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…87,88 The observed regional shifts in TC activity in the WNP basin in recent decades may have significant implication for landfalling TCs and associated impacts various countries in the WNP. 197,198 Further studies are required to identify the possible causes and relative contribution of global climate change to these changes. Similarly, while climate models project more precipitation from TCs in the WNP (and globally) in the 21st century, observational studies and model simulations are required to assess the long-term variations of the total and extreme rainfall induced by TCs for different countries in the WNP (and globally) in the past and the 21st century.…”

Section: Confidence In Detection and Attribution Of Observed Changes mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Walsh

McBride

Klotzbach

et al. 2015

WIREs Climate Change

571

435

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Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century‐long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins. A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive. Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates. Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk. Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC‐induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas. Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate. Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large‐scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65–89. doi: 10.1002/wcc.371 This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

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“…On average it witnesses more than one-third of global TCs, some being the strongest TCs in individual years. These, together with the large and dense population in East and Southeast Asia, have motivated numerous efforts to understand the variability of WNP TCs (e.g., Chan 1985;Lander 1994;Wang and Chan 2002;Chia and Ropelewski 2002;Elsner and Liu 2003;Wu et al 2004;Camargo and Sobel 2005;Camargo et al 2007a,b;Liu and Chan 2008;Zhan et al 2011a; H.-M. Huang et al 2011;Wu et al 2012;Park et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forced and Internal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Track Density in the Western North Pacific*

et al. 2014

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Forced interannual-to-decadal variability of annual tropical cyclone (TC) track density in the western North Pacific between 1979 and 2008 is studied using TC tracks from observations and simulations by a 25-km-resolution version of the GFDL High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Two modes dominate the decadal variability: a nearly basinwide mode, and a dipole mode between the subtropics and lower latitudes. The former mode links to variations in TC number and is forced by SST variations over the off-equatorial tropical central North Pacific, whereas the latter might be associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. The interannual variability is also controlled by two modes: a basinwide mode driven by SST anomalies of opposite signs located in the tropical central Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean, and a southeast-northwest dipole mode connected to the conventional eastern Pacific ENSO. The seasonal evolution of the ENSO effect on TC activity is further explored via a joint empirical orthogonal function analysis using TC track density of consecutive seasons, and the analysis reveals that two types of ENSO are at work. Internal variability in TC track density is then examined using ensemble simulations from both HiRAM and a regional atmospheric model. It exhibits prominent spatial and seasonal patterns, and it is particularly strong in the South China Sea and along the coast of East Asia. This makes an accurate prediction and projection of TC landfall extremely challenging in these regions. In contrast, basin-integrated metrics (e.g., total TC counts and TC days) are more predictable.

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Spatially Inhomogeneous Trends of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Western North Pacific for 1977–2010

Cited by 26 publications

References 53 publications

Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Growing threat of intense tropical cyclones to East Asia over the period 1977–2010

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Forced and Internal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Track Density in the Western North Pacific*

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