Spatiotemporal patterns of<i>Aedes aegypti</i>populations in Cairns, Australia: assessing drivers of dengue transmission

Duncombe, Jennifer; Clements, Archie C. A.; Davis, Joe; Weinstein, Philip; Ritchie, Scott A.

doi:10.1111/tmi.12115

Cited by 39 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…At a community level, transmission appears to be shaped by social connections because regular movements among the same places, such as the homes of family and friends, are often similar for the infected individual and their contacts. Furthermore, as suggested by previous study in Cairns (Duncombe, 2013), clustering may be due to a profusion of vector breeding sites in the high-risk areas. Dengue is not endemic in Queensland, however, Ae.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Naish

Tong

2014

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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Commission VI, WG VI/4KEY WORDS: Clusters, Dengue, Geographical information systems, Spatiotemporal, Spatial autocorrelation ABSTRACT:Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992Queensland in -1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.* Corresponding author. This is useful to know for communication with the appropriate person in cases with more than one author.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Naish

Tong

2014

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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“…This may be due to differences and limitations in the experimental methodologies [32]. Because a 3-monthly precipitation of 100 mm was previously associated with large natural populations of Culex mosquitoes in central Australia [33], we selected that value to represent 'high' seasonal precipitation on a statewide scale.…”

Section: Risk Mapsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting arboviral disease emergence using Bayesian networks: a case study of dengue virus in Western Australia

2016

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SUMMARYA Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for assessing the potential risk of dengue virus emergence and distribution in Western Australia (WA) is presented and used to identify possible hotspots of dengue outbreaks in summer and winter. The model assesses the probabilities of two kinds of events which must take place before an outbreak can occur: (1) introduction of the virus and mosquito vectors to places where human population densities are high; and (2) vector population growth rates as influenced by climatic factors. The results showed that if either Aedes aegypti or Ae. albopictus were to become established in WA, three centres in the northern part of the State (Kununurra, Fitzroy Crossing, Broome) would be at particular risk of experiencing an outbreak. The model can also be readily extended to predict the risk of introduction of other viruses carried by Aedes mosquitoes, such as yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika viruses.

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“…The city of Cairns appears to be at high risk for invasion by ZIKAV through the port area. Based upon validation using the external data of [13], the BioTEMS TIGER model was accurate in predicting the directional movement and distribution of Ae. aegypti in Cairns.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…In predictive modeling, it is imperative to use external data to validate the model where possible [10,11]. In this study, external data from [12,13] were used to validate the BioTEMS model for Cairns. Collection data of Aedes aegypti (L.) from the Cairns suburb was also supplied by Commonwealth of Science and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Modeling the potential for Zika Virus in Cairns, Australia

Kollars¹

2017

J Med Therap

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Australia is at risk of invasion from Zika virus (ZIKAV) from travelers as well as sea and air ports that serve as points of entry for infected mosquitoes and humans entering the country. The Cairns maritime port, located along the coast in northeast Australia, receives diverse international cargo and cruise ships and is at risk for the introduction of ZIKAV. The Bioagent Transport and Environmental Modeling System (BioTEMS) was used to identify an Introduction/invasion zone, a Gap infiltration zone and recommended collection sites for use within integrated mosquito management (IMM) plans. The BioTEMS was also used to model the spread of ZIKAV and validate using data from released Aedes aegypti. Based upon external validation, the BioTEMS model was accurate in predicting the distribution and directional movement of Ae. aegypti in Cairns. Recommended areas for IMM and surveillance sites are provided to assist in the mitigation or prevention of the establishment of ZIKAV through the port or by an infected person infecting local Aedes species. Australia is at high risk to invasion by Zika virus (ZIKAV) due to its geographical proximity to the epidemic region of ZIKAV in the western Pacific [1]. There is some confusion as to how an arbovirus invades a new geographic area, whether through invasion of an infected mosquito or through importation by an infected human. Some researchers and government officials believe the route of ZIKAV introduction will be through humans infecting local mosquitoes. However, the introduction of infected mosquitoes through air or marine ports is also likely and should not be underestimated. There is sometimes failure by public health officials to recognize these two avenues. For example, in a recent CBS 60 Minutes broadcast, Dr. Anthony Fauci (the head of infectious diseases at the U.S. National Institutes of Health) stated, "The mosquito didn't fly from Rio de Janeiro to Florida. The mosquito flies 500 feet in a lifetime. It's the people who travel" [2]. However, there is absolutely no reason to rule out either or both import of ZIKAV through infected humans and/or mosquitoes, as they are both viable.One must gather all the relevant evidence and consider all possibilities when attempting to interdict an invasive species. For example, dengue, another Flavivirus, may have been introduced in several cities in Western Australia by mosquitoes through either air or sea ports [3,4]. The Cairns seaport, located on the east coast of Queensland, serves cargo and cruise ships arriving from several countries in the region [5]. It is therefore at risk for invasion and subsequent spread of ZIKAV. Public health officials in Cairns would benefit by having information they could use to reduce the risk of invasion and spread of ZIKAV in Cairns as part of their integrated mosquito management (IMM) plan. The Bioagent Transport and Environmental Modeling System (BioTEMS) was used to assess the risk of invasion by ZIKAV through the port area in Cairns and provide information for IMM planning. The BioT...

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Spatiotemporal patterns ofAedes aegyptipopulations in Cairns, Australia: assessing drivers of dengue transmission

Cited by 39 publications

References 46 publications

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Predicting arboviral disease emergence using Bayesian networks: a case study of dengue virus in Western Australia

Modeling the potential for Zika Virus in Cairns, Australia

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