Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation dipole transition zone in the western United States

Wise, Erika K.

doi:10.1029/2009gl042193

Cited by 155 publications

(211 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(29 reference statements)

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“…On the other hand, other researchers (Zhang et al, 1996; have considered the PDO to be independent of ENSO, but that reinforcing interactions could occur between the two oscillations. Gershunov and Barnett (1998), and Wise (2010) found that there occurred an enhanced response of the Pacific-North American mode (Wallace and Gutzler, 1981) when the PDO and ENSO were in the same phase, i.e. when the PDO was in a negative phase and a La Niña occurred, the Pacific Northwest experienced cooler and wetter conditions, and the American southwest and northern Mexico experienced even warmer and drier conditions than normal in a negative PDO alone.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Lapp

Jacques

Barrow

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The climatology and hydrology of western North America display strong periodic cycles which are correlated with the low-frequency Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO's signature is seen throughout the entire North Pacific region, with related significant associations to hydrology and ecology in western North America and northeastern Asia. Therefore, the status of the PDO in a warmer world caused by anthropogenic climate change is of great interest. We developed early 21st-century projections of the PDO, using data from archived runs of the most recent high-resolution global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). Because of the geographical adjacency and hypothesized interactions between the PDO and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and between the PDO and the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), we also developed concurrent projections of ENSO and the NAO and examined their relationships with the projected PDO. For the B1, A1B and A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios, the PDO projections for 2000-2050 showed a weak multi-model mean shift towards more occurrences of the negative phase PDO, which becomes statistically significant for the time period 2000-2099. However, not all the models showed a consistent shift to negative PDO conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jacques et al, 2010;Whitfield et al, 2010;Wise, 2010). Winter precipitation in this region is higher (lower) and winter temperatures are cooler (warmer) when the PDO is in a negative (positive) phase, and vice versa in southwestern North America (Mantua et al, 1997;Mantua and Hare, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Lapp

Jacques

Barrow

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…However, various modes of ENSO are associated with different impacts on western NA hydroclimate (Ashok et al, 2007), and teleconnections can vary on decadal-to-centennial time scales (Gershunov and Barnett, 1998b), suggesting that southwest hydroclimate does not always respond to ENSO variability in a linear manner based on our modern understanding of southwest hydroclimate and ENSO correlations (Heyer et al, 2017). However, despite teleconnection variability (Gershunov and Barnett, 1998b), dipole variability (Wise, 2010) and different modes of ENSO (Ashok et al, 2007), paleo-sedimentary records suggest teleconnections between ENSO and southwest climate are similar to those observed in the modern record, and have persisted at century-millennial time scales (Barron and Anderson, 2010;Antinao and McDonald, 2013;Kirby et al, 2014;Hart et al, 2015). Further, paleoecological records have revealed the ENSO phenomenon is correlated with fire regimes of the southwest (Swetnam and .…”

Section: Regional Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Strong El Niño years in the modern record typically result in higher-thannormal winter precipitation in the southwestern United States; while strong La Niña typically causes lower-than-normal winter precipitation and is typically associated with regional drought (Shinker and Bartlein, 2009). Studies have identified a northto-south precipitation dipole correlated with ENSO in the western U.S., showing a strong relationship in the southwest between cool season (Oct-Mar) precipitation and El Niño events (Dettinger et al, 1998;Wise, 2010). Further, many studies have shown statistically significant correlations between ENSO and western North America precipitation, specifically in the southwest where spatially coherent correlations are found during the cool season (Dettinger et al, 1998;Heyer et al, 2017).…”

Section: Regional Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our work has been focused on ciénegas near the US/Mexico borderlands region in southern Arizona and New Mexico (Figure 1) in the monsoon-dominated ecotone of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and in a region well correlated with ENSO activity (Wise, 2010;Heyer et al, 2017). Total annual precipitation is around 254 mm (Western Regional Climate Center, 2017).…”

Section: Regional Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Filling a Geographical Gap: New Paleoecological Reconstructions From the Desert Southwest, USA

et al. 2018

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In 1916 the time stamp for quantitative palynology was set with Lennart von Post's initial paper on pollen analysis and environmental change in the Scandinavian peat bogs. In the 1930s, Von Post provided a map of the known palynological reconstructions. This map showed many conspicuous gaps of geographic coverage that have endured to this day. In particular, environmental reconstruction in arid lands remain much less known, largely due to the paucity of depositional environments in these areas as well as challenges with preservation in regions either uniformly dry or subjected to strong wet/dry phases. Over the last decade we have examined linkages between desert wetland development and episodes of wet and arid conditions. Desert wetland, or ciénegas, are recharged by groundwater and appear to be sensitive to climate-driven groundwater fluctuations. These systems appear to "grow" during wet periods potentially associated with enhanced El Niño activity, suggesting an important linkage with groundwater dynamics and the quantity and frequency of winter precipitation delivery. Hydrologic conditions in ciénegas are also important controls on the preservation of pollen, where episodes of aridity coincide with periods of poor pollen preservation. We assess modern El Niño events, as analogs of past wet conditions, to provide context on the atmospheric controls for delivery of moisture into the desert southwest during winter. Our analysis shows that anomalously high and persistent moisture delivery into the region during El Niño events enables the growth of ciénegas, improves preservation of pollen and promotes the growth of fuels necessary to support wildfire. This paper examines ciénega sites located in the southwestern region of North America at the US/Mexico Border and discusses results that addresses a geographical gap identified by Von Post's original work in paleoenvironmental research.

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A tree-ring based reconstruction of Logan River streamflow, northern Utah

et al. 2013

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We created six new tree‐ring chronologies in northern Utah, which were used with preexisting chronologies from Utah and western Wyoming to reconstruct mean annual flow for the Logan River, the largest tributary of the regionally important Bear River. Two reconstruction models were developed, a “Local” model that incorporated two Rocky Mountain juniper chronologies located within the basin, and a “Regional” model that also included limber pine and pinyon pine chronologies from a larger area. The Local model explained 48.2% of the variability in the instrumental record and the juniper chronologies better captured streamflow variability than Douglas‐fir collected within the Logan basin. Incorporating chronologies from the northern and southern margins of the transition zone of the western precipitation dipole increased the skill of the Regional model (r2 = 0.581). We suggest the increased Regional model skill indicates that both nodes of the western precipitation dipole influence northern Utah climate. The importance of Rocky Mountain juniper in both reconstructions of streamflow for this region suggests that future work should target these trees where more traditionally desirable species are not present. The reconstructions provide the first extended record of streamflow in northern Utah. Preinstrumental streamflows (1605–1921) exhibited considerable variability when compared to the instrumental period (1922–2005). Our findings confirm that the inherent uncertainty in contemporary water management and planning in the region is due to hydroclimatic variability that has persisted for at least the last four centuries.

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Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation dipole transition zone in the western United States

Cited by 155 publications

References 22 publications

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century

Filling a Geographical Gap: New Paleoecological Reconstructions From the Desert Southwest, USA

A tree-ring based reconstruction of Logan River streamflow, northern Utah

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