Spatiotemporal Variation of the Burned Area and Its Relationship with Climatic Factors in Central Kazakhstan

Xu, Yongfang; Lin, Zhaohui; Wu, Chenglai

doi:10.3390/rs13020313

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 71 publications

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“…This suggests that wildfires are probable in the projected dry summer over NCA, as Xu et al . (2021) linked wildfires over the subregion to precipitation deficits.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This may be linked to the increase in evaporation, while the seeming drying trend in summer can be mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection (Jiang et al, 2020). This suggests that wildfires are probable in the projected dry summer over NCA, as Xu et al (2021) linked wildfires over the subregion to precipitation deficits.…”

Section: Projected Future Changes In Precipitation Extremes Over Cent...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Central Asia is characterized by a semi-arid to an arid climate and as such it is one of the driest regions in the world (Xu et al, 2007;Chen et al, 2011;Gessner et al, 2013;Guo et al, 2018), making it particularly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events, such as droughts and floods (Huang et al, 2016;Dilinuer et al, 2021;Guo et al, 2021;Jiang and Zhou, 2021). The annual cumulative precipitation of central Asia is less than 300 mm and the region is characterized by water resource scarcity, limited vegetation growth, wildfires, and vast barren landmasses (Huang et al, 2016;Hu et al, 2017;Xu et al, 2021). With the unprecedented occurrences of precipitation extremes like aridity (Jiang and Zhou, 2021) and flood events (Yao et al, 2021), the impact of climate extremes is inimical to the fragile ecosystem with attendant effects on the socio-economic and sustainable development in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation and multimodel projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations

Dike

Lin

Kece

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Central Asia faces an increasing challenge related to water resources arising from severe droughts and floods that have impacted the region in the past decades. Using a comprehensive set of extreme precipitation indices, we assess the performance of CMIP6 models in representing observed precipitation extremes and investigate future responses of these extremes to greenhouse gas emissions under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Particularly, this study identifies robust signals of projected changes in spring and summer precipitation extremes over central Asia. Results show that the CMIP6 models reasonably reproduced the spatial distribution and variability of precipitation extremes over southern central Asia (SCA) and northern central Asia (NCA) during the spring and summer seasons, respectively. Across the SSPs, the CMIP6 models project a decrease in total spring wet‐day precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) over SCA and a significant increase in PRCPTOT over the NCA. The projected changes are characterized by a significant increase in maximum consecutive 5‐day precipitation (RX5day), wet‐day intensity (SDII), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm); these suggest that the spring will be characterized by intense precipitation extremes. Moreover, no significant change is projected for consecutive wet days (CWD) and dry spells (CDD) over SCA. Nonetheless, the CMIP6 models project a significant increase in summer PRCPTOT over SCA and a decrease in summer PRCPTOT, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CWD over NCA while projecting a significant and robust increase in dry spells. It is also found that the severity of the projected dry spell deepens across the SSP spectra and gets more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century. Notably, the intermodel spread of the precipitation extremes is smaller during the spring over SCA, larger during the summer season over NCA, and more probable in the warmer future.

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“…This suggests that wildfires are probable in the projected dry summer over NCA, as Xu et al . (2021) linked wildfires over the subregion to precipitation deficits.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Projected Future Changes In Precipitation Extremes Over Cent...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Evaluation and multimodel projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations

Dike

Lin

Kece

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

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“…The biogeography of the Eurasian steppes is assembled along a latitudinal gradient of aridity, precipitation being the main driver of this pattern. Precipitation is also a significant determinant of spatio‐temporal variation in steppe fire regimes (Xu et al, 2021). We controlled for variation in precipitation during the 8‐year fire disturbance period of our survey sites using the mean of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) during the 8 years.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel, post‐Soviet fire disturbance regime drives bird diversity and abundance on the Eurasian steppe

Bhagwat,

Kuemmerle,

Soofi

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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Many grassland ecosystems and their associated biodiversity depend on the interactions between fire and land‐use, both of which are shaped by socioeconomic conditions. The Eurasian steppe biome, much of it situated in Kazakhstan, contains 10% of the world's remaining grasslands. The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991, widespread land abandonment and massive declines in wild and domestic ungulates led to biomass accumulation over millions of hectares. This rapid fuel increase made the steppes a global fire hotspot, with major changes in vegetation structure. Yet, the response of steppe biodiversity to these changes remains unexplored. We utilized a unique bird abundance dataset covering the entire Kazakh steppe and semi‐desert regions together with the MODIS burned area product. We modeled the response of bird species richness and abundance as a function of fire disturbance variables—fire extent, cumulative burned area, fire frequency—at varying grazing intensity. Bird species richness was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area, and high fire frequency in moderately grazed and ungrazed steppe. Similarly, overall bird abundance was impacted negatively by large fire extent, cumulative burned area and higher fire frequency in the moderately grazed steppe, ungrazed steppe, and ungrazed semi‐deserts. At the species level, the effect of high fire disturbance was negative for more species than positive. There were considerable fire legacy effects, detectable for at least 8 years. We conclude that the increase in fire disturbance across the post‐Soviet Eurasian steppe has led to strong declines in bird abundance and pronounced changes in community assembly. To gain back control over wildfires and prevent further biodiversity loss, restoration of wild herbivore populations and traditional domestic ungulate grazing systems seems much needed.

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“…In the climate change research, composite analysis was used to explore the salient characteristics of certain special years [63]. In our study, we first standardized the time series of burned area.…”

Section: Composite Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

et al. 2022

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Yunnan province in China has rich forest resources but high forest fire frequency. Therefore, a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and forest fires in this region is important for forest fire prevention. This study used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) data to analyze the influence of climate change on forest fires in the region during 2003–2016. To improve the accuracy and reliability of GRACE TWSC data, we used the generalized three-cornered hat (GTCH) and the least square method to fuse TWSC data from six GRACE solutions. The spatiotemporal variation of forest fires during 2003–2016 was investigated using burned area data. Then, the relationship between burned area and hydrological and climatic factors was analyzed. The results indicate that more than 90% of burned areas are located in northwestern and southern Yunnan (NW and S). On the seasonal scale, forest fires are mainly concentrated in January–April (dry season) and the burned area is negatively correlated with precipitation (correlation coefficient r = −0.83 (NW) and −0.51 (S)), relative humidity (r = −0.79 (NW) and −0.92 (S)), GRACE TWSC (r = −0.57 (NW) and −0.73 (S)) and evapotranspiration (r = −0.90 (NW) and −0.35 (S)). However, the burned area has no significant correlations with the above four factors on the interannual scale. The composite analysis suggests that the extreme climate affects precipitation, evapotranspiration and TWSC in this region, thereby changing water storage of the air in this region, leading to the formation of an environment prone to forest fires. Such conditions have led to an increase in the burned area in the above region. We also found that the difference between TWSC in high- and low-fire years is much greater than the precipitation in the same period. The above results show that GRACE satellites can detect the influence of climate change on forest fires in Yunnan province.

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Spatiotemporal Variation of the Burned Area and Its Relationship with Climatic Factors in Central Kazakhstan

Cited by 11 publications

References 71 publications

Evaluation and multimodel projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations

Evaluation and multimodel projection of seasonal precipitation extremes over central Asia based on CMIP6 simulations

A novel, post‐Soviet fire disturbance regime drives bird diversity and abundance on the Eurasian steppe

The Influence of Climate Change on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China Detected by GRACE Satellites

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