Springtime coupled modes of regional wind in the Iberian Peninsula and large‐scale variability patterns

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationships between the Global Circulation Model (GCM)-simulated 1000 hPa geopotential heights (taken from the ERA40 reanalysis) over the North Atlantic and the regional wind over the Iberian Peninsula for springtime (March to May). The main goal is to recognize the atmospheric circulation patterns linked to wind anomaly configurations. The method used for the downscaling is singular value decomposition (SVD). After applying a Monte Carlo approach to assess the statistical significance of the obtained modes, the SVD analysis highlighted that the covariability is dominated by three main large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic:(1) a first mode that relates local wind to the Scandinavian pattern (SCAN), by which a blocking pattern is linked to below-normal winds, (2) a second covariability mode associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern that correlates with wind over Iberia. An enhanced spring NAO pattern is related to positive (negative) wind correlations over the northern (southern) Iberia and (3) a third SVD mode that relates wind to the East Atlantic (EA) pattern promoting a dissimilar behaviour in the Iberian wind with positive (negative) wind correlations in the western (eastern) part of Iberia. To conclude, composite maps were built up to give an average circulation associated with coherent wind variability over Iberia.

Uncertainty quantification and predictability of wind speed over the Iberian Peninsula

“…The α values are also large on the Mediterranean coast, where sea breezes caused by land‐sea thermal contrast are common. Large α values are also evident over northeastern Iberia and the Balearic Islands, which are affected by a northern or northeastern wind called Tramontana [ Font , ; Martin et al , ].…”

Characterization of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

“…These classifications are usually named circulation types (CTs). Traditionally, CTs have been used to analyse the regional climatic variability of elements such as precipitation (Romero et al , ), temperature (Cassou et al , ; Philipp et al , ; Yiou et al , ; Bermejo and Ancell, ), sea‐level variability (Rasilla‐Álvarez and García‐Codrón, ) and wind (Kaas et al , ; Soriano et al, ; Jiménez et al , ; Martín et al , ). CTs facilitate the assessment of how large‐scale circulation influences wind variability at regional scales, which can vary substantially between nearby areas as a simple response to the orography or land properties (Simpson, ; Bianco et al , ).…”

Time-scale and extent at which large-scale circulation modes determine the wind and solar potential in the Iberian Peninsula

“…It has been highlighted that a large part of the European climate variability is controlled by just a few large-scale circulation patterns (Trigo et al 2008). The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been the focus of many works unveiling its role on the precipitation, cloudiness or wind fields among others (Hurrell 1995, Trigo et al 2002, López-Moreno and Vicente-Serrano 2008, Martín et al 2010, Brayshaw et al 2011, Jerez et al 2013b. Other modes may have received less attention, although their impacts have been also reported.…”

“…Other modes may have received less attention, although their impacts have been also reported. In particular, the East Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) modes have demonstrated influence on the Iberian climate (Paredes et al 2006, Trigo et al 2008, Martín et al 2010, Ramos et al 2010. However, none of these studies pays special attention to the renewable potential of Iberia and its variations according to the phase of those large-scale circulation modes, and most of them are based on either coarse or sparse databases, with the exception of Jerez et al (2013b) that also includes an analysis based on measured power generation data, although focuses only on the NAO.…”