Abstract. A simple 1-D energy budget model (SIMO) for the
prediction of the vertical temperature profiles in small, monomictic lakes
forced by a reduced number of input meteorological variables is proposed.
The model estimates the net heat flux and thermal diffusion using only
routinely measured hourly mean meteorological variables (namely, the air
temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and
precipitation), hourly mean ultraviolet B radiation (UVB), and climatological
yearly mean temperature data. Except for the initial vertical temperature
profile, the model does not use any lake-specific variables. The model
performance was evaluated against lake temperatures measured continuously
during an observational campaign in two lakes belonging to the Plitvice
Lakes, Croatia (Lake 1 and Lake 12). Temperatures were measured at 15 and 16
depths ranging from 0.2 to 27 m in Lake 1 (maximum depth of 37.4 m) and 0.2
to 43 m in Lake 12 (maximum depth of 46 m). The model performance was
evaluated for simulation lengths from 1 to 30 d. The model performed
reasonably well, and it was able to satisfactorily reproduce the vertical
temperature profile at the hourly scale, the deepening of the thermocline
with time, and the annual variation in the vertical temperature profile,
which shows its applicability for short-term prognostic simulations. A
yearlong simulation initiated with an approximately constant vertical
profile of the lake temperature (≈ 4 ∘C) was able to
reproduce the onset of stratification and convective overturn. The
epilimnion temperature was somewhat overestimated, especially with the onset
of the convective overturn. The upper limit of the metalimnion was well
captured, while its thickness was overestimated. Nevertheless, the values of
the model performance measures obtained for a yearlong simulation were
comparable with those reported for other, more complex models. Thus, the
presented model can also be used for long-term simulations and the
assessment of the onset and duration of lake stratification periods when
water temperature data are unavailable, which can be useful for various lake
studies performed in other scientific fields, such as biology, geochemistry,
and sedimentology.