Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminium cycle

Liu, Gang; Bangs, C; Müller, Daniel B.

doi:10.1038/nclimate1698

Cited by 238 publications

(191 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The forecasts of total in-use stock and total old scrap generation for Austria are shown in Fig. 2a, [21], which is in line with results in this study. However, the estimated saturation level on the European average of about 200 kg/cap.…”

Section: Defining Raw Materials Self-supplysupporting

confidence: 79%

“…Therefore, the present analysis provides some indication that saturation will not occur before 2050 in highly developed European economies, such as Austria. This is an important finding as the time required to reach a theoretical saturation level is a crucial assumption in stockdriven approaches to material flow modelling [21,22].…”

Section: Discussion Of Scenario Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Raw Material Supply: Opportunities and Limits of Aluminium Recycling in Austria

Buchner

Laner

Rechberger

et al. 2015

J. Sustain. Metall.

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In order to promote sustainable production by using secondary raw material from existing material stocks, complementary to primary raw material, information about the future availability of secondary resources constitutes a prerequisite. In this study, a dynamic material flow model of historic aluminium (Al) flows in Austria is combined with forecasts on future Al consumption to estimate the development of old scrap generation and in-use stocks until 2050. In-use stocks are estimated to increase by 60 % to 515 kg/cap. by 2050 assuming a scenario of moderate economic growth. Old scrap generation in 2050 would thereby more than double (up to 30 kg/cap.) in comparison to the 2010 amounts. Despite this substantial increase in old scrap generation, industrial self-supply from old scrap will probably not exceed 20 %, and final consumption selfsupply of Al will not exceed 40 % given present conditions. Opportunities and limits of increasing self-supply through higher collection rates and lower scrap export levels are investigated in this study as the European Raw Material Initiative considers enhanced recycling to be a key measure to ensure future resource supply. Based on these analyses, a self-sustaining Al supply from post-consumer Al is not expected if current trends of Al usage continue. Therefore, comprehensive resource policy should be based on a profound understanding of the availability of primary and secondary resources potentials and their dynamics.

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Section: Defining Raw Materials Self-supplysupporting

confidence: 79%

Section: Discussion Of Scenario Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Raw Material Supply: Opportunities and Limits of Aluminium Recycling in Austria

Buchner

Laner

Rechberger

et al. 2015

J. Sustain. Metall.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Among the few exceptions in those early papers were Ayres' material flow analysis of toxic heavy metals (17) and Duchin's proposal to use economic input-output analysis (18) to describe and analyze the metabolic connectedness among physical factors of production, industrial production, and consumptions sectors. Those two approaches have developed into core methods of Industrial Ecology today (6,(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25). The research articles included in the present Special Feature provide ample evidence for Industrial Ecology's success in applying and further developing these methods and in quantifying the industrial metabolism for different industrial processes and across different scales in many of its ramifications.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The interesting aspect is that those two papers hinted at the possibility of linking the analysis of carbon and energy use more directly to the use of materials. The recent Industrial Ecology literature, including this Special Feature, demonstrates how Industrial Ecology helped to create new insights into de-carbonization and energy efficiency potentials by finding new ways to analyze carbon emissions and energy use in its causal relation to the dynamic of the material industrial metabolism (22,34,(41)(42)(43)(44) and to economic growth (45).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…metals (31)(32)(33), or the long-term stock and flow dynamics of basic industrial commodities (22,34). The second avenue is to further develop a theoretical concept to describe, quantify, and eventually simulate the physical economy, thereby providing a solid, quantitative description of the interface mediating the coevolution between social and environmental change (35)(36)(37).…”

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confidence: 99%

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