Storm surge hazard in Manila Bay: Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) and the SW monsoon

Morin, Véronique; Warnitchai, Pennung; Weesakul, Sutat

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2146-y

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The data were obtained using the available international databases, which are given in Table 2. One of the principal constituents for the modelling in storm condition is the precise wind and pressure field because the wind and pressure cause shear stresses, which made surge current and wave [23,24]. If the available wind fields cannot capture the cyclone wind fields or wind data are not available at all, then the charts of atmospheric surface pressure can be used [25].…”

Section: Data and Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of the Effect of an Environmentally Friendly Flood Risk Reduction Approach on the Oman Coastlines during the Gonu Tropical Cyclone (Case Study: The Coastline of Sur)

Banan-Dallalian

Shokatian-Beiragh

Golshani

et al. 2021

Eng

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Tropical cyclones may be destructive in the coastal region, such as the Gonu tropical cyclone, which affected the Arabian Peninsula and parts of southern Iran in 2007. In this study, a coupled MIKE 21/3 HD/SW (hydrodynamic/spectral wave) model was used to simulate the inland flooding inside the Sur port during the Gonu tropical cyclone. The MIKE 21 Cyclone Wind Generation (CWG) tool was utilized to generate the cyclone’s wind and pressure field. The required input data were obtained from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and imported into the CWG tool. In this study, the wind and pressure fields were compared between the analytical vortex model and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data during the Gonu cyclone passage. Moreover, by developing a new model, artificial Mangroves’ effect on inland flooding was investigated. The results show that, contrary to the ECMWF data, the analytical vortex models well captured the storm event’s wind and pressure field. Furthermore, the flood hazard is calculated based on the inundation depth, flow velocity, and area’s vulnerability. The flood hazard map shows that 5% of the coast is at high-risk, 49% is at medium-risk, and 46% is at low-risk class in the Sur port. By applying Mangroves as flood risk reduction, the high-risk area is almost completely removed. However, medium and low-risk zones increase by 50% and 50%, respectively. This information could be helpful in disaster risk reduction and coastal management in the future.

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Section: Data and Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of the Effect of an Environmentally Friendly Flood Risk Reduction Approach on the Oman Coastlines during the Gonu Tropical Cyclone (Case Study: The Coastline of Sur)

Banan-Dallalian

Shokatian-Beiragh

Golshani

et al. 2021

Eng

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“…This is particularly true for the WNP, especially the South China Sea (SCS), where numerical models are underutilized despite promising developments, such as PSU/NCR-MM5 [39] and surge studies specific to Peninsular Malaysia (PM) [56,57]. While MIKE21 modules are employed in countries like Bangladesh, the Philippines, China, and Australia [58][59][60][61], their use on the PM coast is limited. The closest application was by the authors of [62], who simulated anticipated surge heights in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia (ECPM).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Numerical Study on Storm Surge Dynamics Caused by Tropical Depression 29W in the Pahang Region

Mohd Anuar,

Teh,

2023

JMSE

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Amid mounting concerns about climate change’s impact on coastal areas, this study investigates storm surge dynamics induced by Tropical Depression 29W (TD 29W) using the MIKE 21 model. Comprehending the complex mechanisms behind storm surges is crucial considering gaps in understanding their combined influences, including tide–surge interactions, varying typhoon parameters, and changing storm tracks. The impacts of climate change, including accelerating sea level rise and its correlation with storm surge magnitudes, require detailed investigations for effective disaster management in vulnerable coastal communities. Through precise calibration, matching simulations with tidal gauge stations, this research uncovers the intricate interplay between landfall timing, diverse storm tracks, wind intensities, and the amplifying impact of rising sea levels. Findings indicate surge residuals ranging from −0.03m to 0.01m during TD 29W’s landfall, with higher surge residuals during rising tide phases. Moreover, an increase in TD 29W’s maximum wind speed moderately influences positive surges while significantly amplifying negative surge heights by 68% to 92% with wind speed increments. An analysis of typhoon track variations emphasizes the vulnerability of the Pahang coast to changing storm dynamics, underlining the need for tailored resilience strategies. Projections suggest a significant surge height increase by the year 2100, emphasizing the urgency of adaptive measures for the region.

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“…More recently, Lapidez et al [2015] conducted a numerical study using the Delft3D-Flow, which is a non-dispersive shallow water wave model of the potential areas of storm surge occurrence in the Philippines. Morin et al [2016] also simulated the effect of Typhoon Pedring (Nesat) in Manila Bay using a non-linear non-dispersive wave model (MIKE21 model). In addition, Silla and Takagi [2017] studied the potential contribution of the southwest monsoon to the storm surge in Manila Bay.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dispersive Long-Wave Model for Predicting Coastal Flooding Due to Storm Surges and Surface Waves in Manila Bay

Rivera¹

2022

Preprint

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Manila Bay is a large shallow coastal water encompassing the urban areas of Metro Manila and various cities of sub-urban provinces in the Philippines. It is a relatively shallow semi-enclosed basin with an average depth of 20m whose coastal areas are crowded with residential, industrial, agricultural and aquaculture production. Its shallow depths imply that the effect of wind stress on sea level becomes appreciable in driving storm surges even during enhanced Southwest Monsoon and the passage of moderate storms. Using a dispersive long wave model coupled with the significant wave model of the Coastal Engineering Research Center (CERC), the occurrence of potentially devastating storm surge flooding around Manila Bay was numerically simulated. A unique characteristic of the new model is the inclusion of the dispersive terms in the associated momentum balance equations. Deep water gravity waves are always dispersive and inclusion of the dispersive terms is expected to provide more accurate modelling results.The predictive capability of the model was verified using observations during the passage of several storms including Typhoon Milenyo (2006) and Typhoon Pedring (2011). The occurrence of the anomalously high storm surge of about 2.5 meters during the passage of 2011 Typhoon Pedring far north of the area was correctly simulated. Numerical integration of the dispersive long wave model with the addition of higher order terms in the momentum balance, appears to give accurate predictions of the coastal flooding due to storm surges and waves. The hydrodynamic set-down which occurs in many coastal areas during strong typhoons can be simulated well by the model. A new empirical model for the hydrodynamic force exerted by the combined action of storm surges, waves and extreme currents is also presented. Initial calculations of hydrodynamic forces generated by an actual typhoon crossing Manila Bay are discussed.

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Storm surge hazard in Manila Bay: Typhoon Nesat (Pedring) and the SW monsoon

Cited by 16 publications

References 28 publications

Study of the Effect of an Environmentally Friendly Flood Risk Reduction Approach on the Oman Coastlines during the Gonu Tropical Cyclone (Case Study: The Coastline of Sur)

Study of the Effect of an Environmentally Friendly Flood Risk Reduction Approach on the Oman Coastlines during the Gonu Tropical Cyclone (Case Study: The Coastline of Sur)

A Numerical Study on Storm Surge Dynamics Caused by Tropical Depression 29W in the Pahang Region

A Dispersive Long-Wave Model for Predicting Coastal Flooding Due to Storm Surges and Surface Waves in Manila Bay

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